A new NY Democratic primary poll puts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) well ahead of Chuck Schumer. The numbers highlight internal Democratic divisions that Republicans can use to sharpen contrast heading into 2026–2028.
Generated by Gemini using data from Data for Progress
A new Data for Progress (DFP) poll of likely New York Democratic primary voters tests a hypothetical 2028 matchup between Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) and Sen. Charles “Chuck” Schumer. The topline result is wide: Ocasio-Cortez leads by 19 points. The detailed tables show a deeper divide inside the Democratic coalition—especially by age and ideology—and the poll also finds strong demand for Democrats in Washington to push harder against Donald Trump and the MAGA movement.
This Data for Progress poll surveyed 767 likely New York Democratic primary voters from March 26–31, 2025. Respondents were reached via SMS and web panels, and results were weighted by age, gender, education, race, and geography. The reported margin of error is ±4 percentage points.
The survey tests a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary matchup and then repeats the ballot after respondents read short positive and negative descriptions of each candidate.
This matters for interpretation because the results reflect the views of a primary electorate, not a statewide general-election electorate.
On the initial ballot test (with leaners included in totals), the poll reports:
The large lead is not limited to the first question. The survey repeats the ballot after presenting favorable descriptions of both candidates and again after presenting negative descriptions of both candidates. The topline stays almost the same.
After positive descriptions:
After negative descriptions:
This type of stability matters. In many early, hypothetical matchups, voters shift once they are reminded of achievements, leadership roles, or criticisms. Here, the margin does not materially move across the message-testing steps.
In this sample, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has a stronger favorability profile than Chuck Schumer: 75% favorable / 16% unfavorable for Ocasio-Cortez versus 62% favorable / 36% unfavorable for Schumer.
The poll also tested favorability for other national Democrats. Net favorability scores in this survey include Bernie Sanders (+69), Kamala Harris (+63), Elizabeth Warren (+60), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+59), and Chuck Schumer (+26).
Those comparisons do not prove who would win a future contest. They do show where a Senate leader ranks inside the party’s primary electorate relative to other well-known Democratic figures.
After respondents read positive descriptions of both candidates, favorability rises for each: Ocasio-Cortez improves to 82/13, and Schumer improves to 72/25.
Even when both candidates are shown in favorable terms, the ballot result remains essentially unchanged. That reinforces the idea that many voters already have settled impressions.
The ballot margin is driven by clear splits inside the Democratic primary electorate.
By age:
Generated by Gemini using data from Data for Progress
By ideology:
Generated by Gemini using data from Data for Progress
These splits indicate that AOC’s advantage is strongest among younger and more progressive primary voters, while Schumer’s best lane is among self-identified moderates.
This structure can shape how campaigns talk and act. When large blocs inside a party want different leadership styles, candidates often choose messaging that secures their strongest bloc first, then try to expand. In primary politics, that can mean sharper contrasts and less patience for compromise.
When asked what matters most in choosing a candidate, the top response is “threats to democracy” (25%), followed by Social Security/Medicare (18%) and the economy/jobs/inflation (17%).
These issue priorities help explain why leadership style is so important in this poll. If a major share of voters sees politics as a fight over system-level stakes, they may prefer leaders who communicate urgency and conflict.
On a separate question about how Democrats in Washington are responding to Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, 84% say Democrats are doing “not enough.”
Generated by Gemini using data from Data for Progress
This is one of the clearest findings in the survey. It describes a primary electorate that wants stronger opposition and sharper lines, not a softer approach.
This is a New York Democratic primary poll. The immediate question is about one state and one party electorate. The broader relevance is about political incentives and party direction heading into 2026–2028.
Primary voters are often the most consistent voters in a party. They tend to follow politics closely and reward leaders who match their priorities and tone. When a primary electorate signals it wants more confrontation, leaders and candidates often adjust their posture to avoid being outflanked inside their own coalition.
The poll also highlights a pressure point for Democratic leadership. With 84% of likely NY Democratic primary voters saying Democrats in Washington are doing “not enough” to push back on Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, party leaders have incentives to adopt a more confrontational posture to satisfy the most engaged voters. In a closely divided national environment, that dynamic can translate into more high-stakes standoffs—harder negotiations, sharper oversight fights, and more brinkmanship—rather than steady bipartisan legislating.
This can create friction inside a coalition. The same poll that shows very liberal voters breaking overwhelmingly to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also shows moderates leaning to Schumer. That is not a small difference. It is a sign that different parts of the party want different political approaches. As that tension grows, the party can spend more time explaining its internal debates rather than delivering a single clean message.
The poll’s message-testing is also relevant. When the ballot stays steady after positive and negative descriptions, it suggests the contest is not just about small differences in information. It suggests deeper alignment, identity, or trust is shaping preference.
In a high-salience national environment, these signals can influence recruiting, fundraising, and the incentives for incumbents who worry about internal challenges.
This poll is a New York Democratic primary snapshot, but the internal splits still matter because they point to incentives. When a party’s most engaged voters demand a tougher posture, incumbents and leaders often shift toward that center of gravity to protect themselves—especially in high-profile contests.
For Republicans, the opening is not only messaging—it is positioning. If Democratic politics becomes increasingly driven by intra-party pressure to prove maximal opposition to Trump and MAGA, Republicans can argue for a stability-and-results agenda: cost of living, public safety competence, border enforcement, and keeping government functioning.
The same dynamic can also shape governing expectations. In a closely divided Congress, sharper internal Democratic demands can raise the likelihood of harder negotiations and more brinkmanship as leaders manage their base while trying to govern. Republicans can frame that as a choice between procedural conflict and practical outcomes.
This is not a prediction about New York’s eventual ballot. It is a read on how primary pressure can shape national behavior—and how Republicans can benefit by offering a simpler governing contrast while Democrats navigate factional demands.
Data for Progress finds Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading Chuck Schumer 55% to 36% in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary test among likely New York Democratic primary voters, and the ballot remains largely unchanged after message-testing.
The more durable signal is what sits under the topline: a Democratic electorate split by age and ideology, paired with a strong view that Democrats in Washington are not pushing back on Trump and the MAGA movement strongly enough. Those dynamics shape incentives, messaging, and coalition management—and they create openings for Republicans who can present a simpler, stability-and-results contrast while Democrats wrestle with internal pressure and faction demands.
This analysis is based on a Data for Progress poll of 767 likely New York Democratic primary voters, fielded March 26–31, 2025 (MOE ±4), including the full toplines and crosstab tables published by Data for Progress.