Despite a massive financial advantage, Democrat Josh Weil fell short in Florida’s 6th District, losing to Republican Randy Fine in an April 1 special election that reinforced GOP control of the seat.
What to Know:
Republican Randy Fine won Florida’s April 1, 2025 special election in FL-6 with 56.66% of the vote.
Democrat Josh Weil, who outraised his opponent nearly 10 to 1, finished with 42.71% of the vote.
Total reported turnout was just under 200,000 voters.
Weil raised approximately $9.5 million; Fine raised under $1 million.
The race did not shift the balance of power in the U.S. House.
On April 1, 2025, voters in Florida’s 6th Congressional District went to the polls to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Michael Waltz, who resigned to serve as National Security Advisor under the Trump administration. Republican Randy Fine, a member of the Florida House of Representatives, defeated Democratic challenger Josh Weil with 56.66% of the vote. Weil earned 42.71%, falling short despite outspending Fine nearly tenfold.
The result ensured that FL-6 remained under Republican control, in line with its historical pattern. Former President Donald Trump won the district by 17 points in both 2016 and 2020, and Waltz had secured 66.5% of the vote in the 2022 midterm. Fine’s margin of victory was narrower than previous GOP wins, but the outcome confirmed the district’s continued Republican alignment.
Roughly 195,000 voters cast ballots in the special election—well below presidential-year participation, but high by special election standards. Republican turnout remained consistent with historical trends, while Democratic performance improved slightly in coastal precincts such as Daytona Beach and parts of St. Johns County.
Florida’s 6th District includes portions of northeast Florida and central Atlantic coast regions, including Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Palm Coast, and St. Augustine. The district has been reliably Republican for more than a decade, and GOP candidates have carried it in every congressional election since 2012.
Josh Weil’s campaign raised approximately $9.5 million, making it one of the most expensive special election bids of the cycle. The bulk of that money was spent on digital advertising, television, direct mail, and field staff targeting suburban and coastal swing precincts. Despite the investment, Weil was unable to make significant inroads with Republican or independent voters.
In contrast, Randy Fine raised approximately $987,000, according to campaign finance records. His campaign focused on core GOP turnout and minimal media spending, instead leveraging earned media and party infrastructure. National Republican committees, including the NRCC, did not heavily invest in the race but used the contest to bolster donor acquisition and grassroots activation.
The financial gap—nearly 10 to 1—became a national talking point after the election. Democratic allies framed the race as a messaging test for 2026, while critics questioned the wisdom of pouring resources into a district with a long Republican track record and a 2024 margin of over 30 points.
Randy Fine won the race by 14 percentage points, significantly closer than Waltz’s 2022 win, but still a decisive result in a district where Republicans dominate voter registration. According to March 2025 registration data, 56% of active voters in the district were Republicans, compared to 24% Democrats and 20% unaffiliated or third-party.
Democratic performance was strongest in precincts around Flagler and Volusia counties, but these gains were not enough to overcome Republican margins inland and in St. Johns County. Exit polling and voter file analysis suggest Weil's message resonated more with base Democratic voters than with swing or crossover voters.
Republicans maintained their hold on the seat with reduced outside spending, while Democrats ran one of the most expensive losing campaigns of the year.
The FL-6 special election did not alter the balance of power in the U.S. House, but it reignited strategic debates inside Democratic circles about spending priorities. With control of Congress expected to be closely contested in 2026, national committees are reassessing how resources are allocated—particularly in districts where partisan fundamentals remain difficult to overcome.
The NRCC capitalized on the race to grow its donor list and re-engage small-dollar conservatives. While Democrats gained voter data and message-testing feedback, the outcome raised questions about whether symbolic races are worth high-dollar investment in a year with competitive seats on the line across the Midwest and Southwest.
As both parties pivot toward the midterms, FL-6 will be remembered less for its outcome than for its spending. The results suggest that while money matters, map dynamics still rule—and in Republican territory like FL-6, even $9.5 million can only move the needle so far.