Turns out, when the economy hurts, Trump’s base doesn’t flinch — they dig in.
If there were any lingering illusions that economic dissatisfaction would finally break Donald Trump's political armor, the latest polls shatter them. Despite rising voter concerns about tariffs, inflation, and the broader economy, Trump’s favorability and trust metrics remain startlingly steady — while Democrats face a deepening collapse in public confidence.
The Cygnal national poll from April 2025 demonstrates the dynamic shaping America's political future: Trump's approval rating holds at 47%, unchanged from March, even as half of voters express concerns that tariffs are driving up consumer costs and prolonging inflation. Rather than eroding his coalition, economic turbulence seems to be entrenching it. And the Democratic Party? They're bleeding voters — and struggling to understand why.
One of the most telling findings from Cygnal’s survey: 55% of Republicans still support Trump’s tariffs, and another 25% are unsure but say they trust Trump’s judgment on the issue. Economic theory is not the foundation for that trust. It stems from symbolic politics, which holds that Trump defends American sovereignty against international elites despite his flaws. In this mindset, tariffs aren’t simply trade policies. They’re national statements.
President Donald J. Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office. Official White House Photo, via http://whitehouse.gov
Reuters/Ipsos polling from late April 2025 reinforces this trend. While many voters acknowledge feeling the economic pinch of tariffs, a significant share remains hopeful that Trump's hardline approach will yield long-term benefits. In the short term, Trump may take hits on specific economic perceptions — but the deeper trust among his base remains shockingly resilient.
If Trump’s numbers are surprising, the Democratic Party’s collapse is downright alarming. Cygnal’s poll shows Democrats with a –15 net favorability rating — their worst in recent cycles, with just 40% of voters viewing the party favorably.
A CNN poll released in mid-April paints an even bleaker picture: only 30% of Americans said they trusted Democrats to handle national issues — a historic low.
Source: information from CNN Poll
Much of this stems from perceived disconnection from real-world voter concerns. While inflation, immigration, and public safety dominate daily life, Democratic messaging has often leaned heavily on identity politics and cultural issues — topics that increasingly alienate swing voters and Independents.
Perhaps the most decisive factor heading into 2026 is this: Trump remains the most trusted political figure on the economy. A Gallup poll released earlier this month shows 44% of Americans trust Trump to handle economic matters — placing him far ahead of congressional Democrats, President Harris, and any potential challengers.
Trump Job Approval from poll data. Published May 17, 2025 by Cygnal.
Notably, Gallup found that Republicans in Congress and Speaker Mike Johnson also score relatively high trust numbers on economic management, suggesting that the GOP’s economic brand remains cohesive. Meanwhile, Democratic leaders often failed to break double-digit trust levels. In fact, many Democrats, including prominent economic spokespeople, polled in the low single digits for public trust.
This economic trust gap may be the single biggest obstacle facing Democrats over the next 18 months.
It’s not just partisan divides that define this moment — it’s a collapse of institutional legitimacy across the board. Cygnal’s poll reveals that local officials like mayors still enjoy relatively healthy approval ratings (59%), while members of Congress lag behind. Worse, only half of voters believe that judges are free from partisan bias — and Democrats are even less likely to trust judicial independence than Republicans or Independents.
When voters lose faith in the system, they don't look for technocratic fixes. They look for disruptive forces. Trump, for all his flaws, offers voters that disruption. The polling suggests a country still hungry for outsiders — and deeply skeptical of establishment promises.
The key takeaway from this spring’s polling: Trump's political brand remains shockingly resilient, even when faced with unpopular policies like tariffs. Although voters aren't necessarily happy about price increases, their faith in Trump's ability to lead the economy and their strong mistrust of Democratic candidates outweigh any immediate financial annoyances.
Democrats are losing not just a tactical conflict but also the war for relevance, authenticity, and trust. Heading into 2026 and beyond, unless they recalibrate dramatically on economics, immigration, and cultural connection, they risk repeating the mistakes of 2024 — and watching Trump’s coalition expand into new territory.
The American electorate is sending a clear message: it’s not enough to criticize Trump’s policies. Voters want leadership they can trust to fight for them — and for now, they still believe Donald Trump is that leader.