As Trump’s shadow looms, a safe Senate seat becomes a litmus test for the future of conservatism.
In 2026, Texas is hosting a political reckoning in addition to a Senate primary. The race between Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton isn’t about policy differences so much as it is about who speaks for the Republican Party in the post-Trump era.
Cornyn, once untouchable in Texas politics, now finds himself out of step with a base that craves confrontation over consensus and loyalty over legacy. As grassroots conservatives rally behind Paxton despite his legal baggage, the contest has become less about qualifications and more about what kind of Republican voters want to send to Washington—and what kind of party they want to build.
John Cornyn was once protected from political threats by his lengthy Senate tenure, which dates back to 2002. But in 2026, that longevity may be his Achilles’ heel. A new poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University shows him trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton by 9 points among likely GOP primary voters (43% to 34%), with another 23% undecided.
Sen. John Cornyn | Official U.S. Senate photo, Public Domain. Source
In a hypothetical three-way race including Congressman Wesley Hunt, Paxton still leads with 34%, while Cornyn drops to 27%, and Hunt trails at 15%. Texas conservatives are searching for something new, and the message is clear: the old guard is no longer popular.
Data from TSU
Cornyn’s favorability among likely primary voters stands at just 57%, compared to 68% for Paxton. His net favorability—the difference between favorable and unfavorable views—is a lukewarm +23%, while Paxton enjoys a far stronger +46%.
And despite Cornyn's seniority and previous alignment with party leadership, Trump-era conservatives see him as emblematic of an establishment that no longer speaks to their priorities: immigration crackdowns, aggressive deregulation, and open confrontation with Democratic institutions.
Paxton, impeached and then acquitted by the Texas Senate is no stranger to controversy. He was previously under federal investigation for bribery and abuse of office. However, in the final weeks of President Joe Biden’s administration, the U.S. Department of Justice decided not to prosecute Paxton, effectively ending the long-running federal corruption investigation. This decision removed a significant legal hurdle as Paxton considers a potential U.S. Senate run.
Ken Paxton | Photo by Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0.
As Rice University’s Mark Jones told Houston Public Media, “Paxton is a very strong favorite... and it’s tough to see how, absent a Trump endorsement of Cornyn, Cornyn could flip the table.”
That’s partly because Paxton has successfully cast his legal battles as political warfare. His alignment with Trump is unwavering. And in Trump’s Republican Party, that allegiance is often enough to earn the benefit of the doubt—even when under indictment.
While Paxton dominates Cornyn among Republican primary voters, he becomes a significantly weaker general election candidate. The TSU poll shows Democratic challengers like Colin Allred and Joaquin Castro trailing Cornyn and Hunt by 5 to 7 points. Against Paxton, however, the gap shrinks to 2 or 3 points—well within the margin of error.
In head-to-head matchups:
This gap is most pronounced among independents. While Cornyn and Hunt win independents handily, Paxton only narrowly edges out Democratic candidates among this bloc. That vulnerability could turn Texas into a 2026 battleground if Paxton is the nominee.
In addition to Ken Paxton's challenge, John Cornyn is also dealing with a perception issue that is fundamental to the Republican Party today. Among GOP primary voters, only 30% say they would definitely consider voting for Cornyn. 23%, or nearly a quarter, say they would never. Another 10% remain undecided, saying they don’t know enough about him to make a choice.
Data from TSU
Contrast that with Paxton’s numbers, and the enthusiasm gap becomes undeniable. A solid 42% say they would definitely vote for Paxton, while just 16% say they never would. Only 7% are unsure.
This difference speaks to more than just candidate preference—it reveals a broader identity crisis within the Republican Party. Cornyn represents an older brand of conservatism: procedural, policy-driven, and rooted in legal restraint. But in the post-2020 era, that’s not what the base is asking for. What energizes today’s GOP voters isn’t caution—it’s confrontation. And unless Cornyn finds a way to tap into that energy, he risks becoming irrelevant in a party that’s rapidly redefining itself.
These figures reveal a significant disparity in enthusiasm, as well as a persistent identity crisis within the GOP. Cornyn’s style of conservatism, rooted in legal proceduralism and incremental policy, simply doesn’t electrify the post-2020 Republican base.
Cornyn’s primary battle is not merely a clash of candidates; it’s an ideological litmus test. Can institutional Republicans survive in a party reshaped by Trump, grievance politics, and anti-establishment fervor? Or is the GOP destined to purge its old guard in favor of populist hardliners like Paxton?
The results of the March 2026 primary may answer that question. But if Paxton wins the nomination and struggles in the general, it could also ignite a new internal reckoning for Republicans—one that might finally force the party to decide what kind of conservatism it truly stands for.
Texas is more than a red stronghold—it’s a bellwether for the Republican Party’s soul. With Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn in the GOP primary, and with general election margins tighter than expected, the Lone Star State could deliver the biggest political surprise of 2026.
The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center has given us a glimpse into a pivotal race, one that blends local stakes with national consequences. Whether Cornyn can hold off the Paxton wave—or whether Democrats can exploit a divided GOP—remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: the Texas Senate primary is no longer a formality. It’s a fight for the future.
