The generic congressional ballot has tightened into a dead heat as Kamala Harris’ standing improves, even while inflation continues to shape how voters judge the economy and the country’s direction.
The McLaughlin December Poll was conducted December 12–19, 2025, among 1,000 General Election voters. It provides a late-year reading of national mood, partisan advantage, and the cost-of-living pressures that voters are carrying into 2026.
Even with some movement in the political environment, the public mood is stuck in a pessimistic place. Just 38% say the country is headed in the right direction, while 55% say it’s on the wrong track—unchanged from November.
That top line hides sharp divides. Men are split evenly on direction (48% right direction / 48% wrong track), while women are far more negative (29% / 62%). Independents are deeply dissatisfied (20% / 72%). Regionally, the West is the most downbeat at 35% right direction and 62% wrong track, while the East and Midwest both show 40% right direction but still majority wrong track.
The takeaway is straightforward: even as the ballot test tightens, most voters still feel the country isn’t going the right way—and that creates a volatile environment where economic messages tend to land hardest.
The clearest shift in the McLaughlin December Poll is the generic congressional ballot. After trailing 44% to 46% in November, Democrats lead 46% to 45% in December. That’s not a durable advantage; it’s a sign of a competitive national environment where small changes matter.
One reason this looks like a true toss-up is that the “committed” vote is almost perfectly matched. Republicans sit at 31% “definitely,” 9% “probably,” and 5% “lean.” Democrats are at 32% “definitely,” 9% “probably,” and 5% “lean.” In other words, both parties have similarly sized core coalitions and similarly sized “soft” supporters. That leaves the outcome more dependent on persuasion at the margins and turnout execution than on any sweeping national wave—at least based on this poll.
Narrow Bridge Holds the Power Balance, based on McLaughlin Poll figures. Visual created by Campaign Now using Google Gemini.
The poll’s leadership measures tell a mixed story rather than a single narrative.
Kamala Harris posts 49% favorable and 44% unfavorable, moving from 48% / 47% in November. What’s notable isn’t only the top line—it’s where her image is strongest and weakest. She is positive in the East (53% / 38%), South (50% / 45%), and West (50% / 41%), but underwater in the Midwest (46% / 50%). By party and ideology, the familiar splits remain: Democrats (86% / 11%) and liberals (80% / 17%) are strongly supportive; Republicans (21% / 72%) and conservatives (24% / 70%) are strongly opposed. Independents sit close to even but slightly negative at 44% favorable and 47% unfavorable.
By age, Harris is clearly stronger with under-55 voters (55% / 36%) than over-55 voters (43% / 54%). And while she is slightly net positive with women (51% / 41%), men are essentially split (48% / 47%). Among racial groups, she is strongest with African-American voters (75% / 16%) and holds a clear positive with Hispanics (61% / 32%), while white voters are slightly negative (44% / 50%).
Donald Trump’s job approval, meanwhile, looks steady: 50% approve and 47% disapprove, essentially unchanged from November (50% / 46%). In a national mood where “wrong track” remains high, stability itself is a signal—voters may be unhappy with the country, but that dissatisfaction is not automatically translating into deteriorating numbers for him in this month’s reading.
The economic picture in the McLaughlin December Poll is best described as “slightly less acute stress, but still heavy pressure.” On issues, the economy (44%) and inflation/cost of living (27%) dominate the agenda. And compared to November, one specific issue rises: “reducing inflation” increases from 18% to 21%.
Economic Pessimism Drives 'Wrong Track' Outlook, based on McLaughlin Poll figures. Visual created by Campaign Now using Google Gemini.
At the lived-experience level, the poll shows how pervasive inflation remains: 79% say they are impacted. Within that, 41% say they are “struggling,” down from 46% in November—a meaningful improvement, but still a very large share.
The poll also breaks out two groups that help explain the texture behind the topline: 36% say they are impacted by inflation but not struggling, and 23% say they are not cutting back. That distribution suggests fewer people are at the breaking point than a month ago, but most are still feeling cost pressure in some form.
And while economic pain is the dominant theme, the public’s emotional posture is not improving. On holiday sentiment, 27% say they feel more optimistic versus 38% who feel more pessimistic. Even if the intensity of “struggling” eases, pessimism can keep voters in a change-minded posture.
Beyond cost-of-living stress, the poll also tests how voters respond to broader policy framing. One clear signal is that ‘America First’ language has majority buy-in, and the support shows up across multiple groups
America First Movement Core Support, based on McLaughlin Poll figures. Visual created by Campaign Now using Google Gemini.
Hispanic voters are tied 45%–45% on the generic ballot, a signal that neither party can take this group for granted. At the same time, the gender gap remains a defining dividing line: men are GOP +7 (50% GOP / 43% Dem), while women are Dem +9 (49% Dem / 40% GOP). In a dead-heat national environment, persistent gaps like that become central to strategy—message framing, turnout, and persuasion targets.
Trump Approval: Policy and Personality , based on McLaughlin Poll figures. Visual created by Campaign Now using Google Gemini.
One number that matters for persuasion is the group that separates personality from policy: 14% say they disapprove of Trump personally but like his policies. In plain terms, they are not “automatic” supporters, but they are reachable if the campaign conversation is anchored in practical results. In a close national environment, a segment that large can decide the direction of the month-to-month trend—and, eventually, the outcome.
Beyond cost-of-living concerns, the poll also captures a broader appetite for ‘America First’ policy framing. In fact, 65% agree with the America First movement’s core mission—an indicator that a values-and-priorities message may resonate alongside economic relief.
The McLaughlin December Poll points to a country that still feels stuck: 38% right direction and 55% wrong track. At the same time, the political environment is tightening. Democrats edge ahead by 1 on the generic ballot after trailing in November, and the “locked-in” support on both sides looks nearly identical. That is why the environment reads as truly competitive rather than decisively leaning.
The economy remains the main driver. “Struggling” with inflation eases from 46% to 41%, but the public mood remains pessimistic, and inflation is still the dominant lens through which voters judge leaders. Harris improves across the month and is strongest with younger voters and key demographic blocs, while Trump’s approval remains steady.
If this pattern holds, the near-term story is not a wave. It is a fight for marginal voters in a high-anxiety economy, where small shifts in coalition groups and persuasion segments can move the trendline quickly.