How one Republican pollster is tracking the multiracial, anti-elite realignment reshaping American politics.
What to Know:
Patrick Ruffini, Republican pollster and author of Party of the People, isn’t just observing America’s political transformation—he’s mapping it in real time. In a recent podcast hosted by the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC), Ruffini joined Democratic pollster Bradley Honan and GOP strategist Chapin Fay to unpack one of the most consequential trends reshaping American politics: the emergence of a multiracial, working-class Republican coalition.
Ruffini begins by challenging how political professionals define class. “College education—or the lack of it—has become the fundamental dividing line in American politics,” he explained. While income used to serve as a shorthand for class, Ruffini argues that education is now the best predictor of how Americans vote. Regional income variations, he noted, make it less reliable as a political indicator.
This trend first became visible in 2016 with white non-college voters flocking to Donald Trump. In 2020, the shift expanded to include Latino voters. By 2024, Ruffini says the GOP’s gains had broadened across racial lines, consolidating into what he calls a multiracial working-class coalition—one that now makes up approximately 70% of the electorate.
The data backs him up. Ruffini cited that:
That last number alone signals a fundamental transformation in American politics. “These are voters who for decades leaned heavily Democratic, but their values have remained more conservative than their voting patterns suggested,” Ruffini noted.
Even more striking is the reversal of the income divide. “Trump is the first Republican in decades to win more support from the lowest income group than the highest,” Ruffini said, citing Financial Times data. Meanwhile, Democrats are now winning over more of the wealthiest Americans than the poorest—a complete inversion of the 20th-century political order.
Democrats used to proudly brand themselves as the party of the working class. “The strongest positive association with Democrats—right up until 2004—was that they were the party of the common man,” Ruffini said, citing American National Election Studies.
That changed as the party shifted focus from class solidarity to social justice, framing itself around the defense of marginalized identities. “That flipped. Now they’re seen as the party of marginalized groups,” he explained. The GOP, by contrast, has been steadily absorbing the cultural and economic frustrations that the Democrats once championed. “Democrats have shed that identity,” Ruffini said. “And Republicans, once painted as the party of the rich, are now being seen as the party of regular people”.
If you want to see these dynamics in action, Ruffini suggests looking at New York City. “Trump got over 30% of the vote in New York City in 2024,” he said. That might sound unremarkable until you drill into the neighborhoods.
Asian voters in Queens, Eastern European and Jewish voters in Brooklyn, and Latino communities in the Bronx all swung right. “You really see the clear differences neighborhood to neighborhood,” Ruffini noted. These aren't Republican strongholds—they’re the exact places Democrats have relied on for decades.
Ruffini credits Trump’s unorthodox outreach—appearing on male-oriented podcasts, attending UFC matches, and avoiding conventional TV buys—as a tactical masterstroke. “He went where those voters were. That mattered,” Ruffini emphasized.
Patrick Ruffini argues that Donald Trump didn’t invent the Republican Party’s working-class shift—he accelerated and embodied it. The populist current that defined Trump’s rise had already been building through years of institutional distrust, cultural anxiety, and backlash against globalism. Immigration debates, financial bailouts, and a sense that the system no longer served ordinary people had created the conditions. Trump simply tapped into them more effectively than anyone else.
“Trump isn’t just a disruptor—he’s an expression of a populist, anti-institutional wave that was building long before him,” Ruffini explained, referencing voter frustrations dating back to the Bush and Obama years.
His success wasn’t just about message—it was about posture. Trump didn’t merely critique the establishment; he positioned himself as its opposite. That made him not only credible but indispensable to GOP voters eager for someone who would take on entrenched institutions without flinching. Ruffini described this as a unique kind of trust: “Trump’s superpower is that the base trusts him to deliver—even when he makes compromises”.
Two issues helped crystallize that trust: trade and immigration. In 2016, Trump’s rejection of traditional GOP orthodoxy on free trade resonated in the industrial Midwest. By 2024, immigration had returned as a central issue, but not in the way Democrats expected. Framed as a question of fairness and order—not identity—immigration concerns began to unify the Republican coalition, drawing in not just white working-class voters, but Latinos as well.
These shifts didn’t happen in a vacuum. Democrats, Ruffini argues, ceded critical ground by stepping away from kitchen-table economics. In their absence, cultural issues filled the void. For many working-class voters—especially nonwhite voters—the party’s stances on schools, policing, and gender politics began to feel disconnected from day-to-day realities. What emerged wasn’t a messaging failure—it was a widening values gap. And it’s still growing.
Looking toward 2026, Ruffini sees little chance of sweeping change in the House. Redistricting has locked most districts into partisan patterns, creating a landscape defined more by attrition than momentum. The battleground is narrow, and wins will come from smart moves in overlooked places—like New Jersey’s 9th, which nearly flipped in 2024.
To make gains, Republicans can’t rely on incumbent safety nets or dated outreach methods. Traditional media isn’t reaching the voters who are driving this realignment. The party’s growing coalition—young, working-class, and increasingly diverse—isn’t tuning in to TV ads. They’re online, in podcasts, at cultural events, and moving through spaces where campaigns rarely bother to show up.
The opportunity is real, but so is the risk. In Georgia, data showed a sharp drop-off in support for Democrats among Black voters who didn’t turn out. It wasn’t just a turnout problem—it was a failure to connect. This is the moment for both parties to reassess. The GOP’s base is changing fast, and the old playbook doesn’t apply. Whether Republicans can hold onto this coalition—or whether Democrats can win back voters they’ve lost touch with—will shape the next phase of American politics.
The map is shifting. And if you're not watching closely, you’re already behind.