With key rulings on abortion, voting rights, and redistricting at stake, the outcome of this election could slow Trump’s momentum and impact his policy ambitions nationwide.
What to Know:
For decades, Wisconsin’s Supreme Court was seen as a judicial body, not a political weapon. That changed in 2023, when a record $60 million election shattered expectations, flipping the court to a 4-3 liberal majority for the first time in 15 years. The moment the left took control, they used the court as a tool to push their political agenda—forcing Republicans to redraw legislative districts, dismantling conservative election laws, and preparing for an even bolder power grab in 2025.
Now, April’s election will decide whether that judicial activism continues—or whether Wisconsin restores judicial restraint and constitutional balance. The Associated Press (AP) reports that Republicans view this race as a chance to reclaim lost ground after watching liberal justices “hand Democrats victories in redistricting and election law cases” over the last two years. The stakes have never been higher.
The shift in Wisconsin’s judiciary wasn’t subtle. After liberals flipped control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court in 2023, the court wasted no time in striking down the state's Republican-drawn legislative maps in the case Clarke v. Wisconsin Elections Commission. In December 2023, the justices ruled that the maps violated the state constitution’s requirement for contiguous districts, forcing a redrawing of the legislative lines ahead of the 2024 elections.
This decision was a political maneuver with massive implications. The new court-mandated maps weakened the GOP’s hold on the state legislature, a shift that The New York Times noted was immediate and deliberate. By changing the maps before the next election cycle, the court handed Democrats a structural advantage, helping them flip 14 legislative seats and disrupting the Republican supermajority. With these changes already reshaping Wisconsin’s political landscape, the battle over congressional districts is the next front in the Democrats’ strategy.
With one more election victory, Democrats could redraw Wisconsin’s congressional districts, potentially flipping two GOP-held U.S. House seats in 2026. The Wisconsin Democratic Party openly admits this is part of their long-term strategy, with national figures like former Attorney General Eric Holder fundraising to ensure that liberal justices stay in control of the court.
In other words, if conservatives lose this race, it won’t just affect Wisconsin—it will shift the balance of power in Congress.
What makes Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race different from other judicial elections is the direct impact it will have on national politics. As AP reports, Wisconsin was critical in Donald Trump’s 2024 victory, and it remains one of the most closely divided states in America. Democrats know that by controlling the court, they can manipulate election rules ahead of 2028, ensuring their candidate has a built-in advantage before the first ballot is even cast.
According to the Associated Press, liberal candidate Susan Crawford participated in a donor briefing where Democratic strategists identified flipping two Republican-held U.S. House seats as a major objective, reinforcing GOP concerns that the court is being used as a partisan tool to reshape congressional power.
Source: Associated Press
Republicans recognize these stakes. After losing the 2023 court race, the Wisconsin GOP has vowed not to repeat its mistakes. That year, conservative candidate Dan Kelly refused direct Republican funding, a decision that allowed Democratic groups to outspend him on critical TV ads. This time, Brad Schimel is backed by the full weight of the party, ensuring that his campaign has the resources to fight back.
The spending war has already begun. AP reports that Schimel’s campaign launched a $1.1 million TV ad blitz statewide, marking the first major spending of the race. Crawford quickly followed with her own big-money ad push, signaling that this election will likely surpass the $51 million spent in 2023. But in a race this close, money alone won’t be enough—turnout is everything.
Two candidates with radically different views on the law are on the ballot this April.
Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate, is a former Wisconsin Attorney General with a proven track record of defending constitutional principles. A staunch supporter of election integrity and judicial restraint, Schimel has made clear that he rejects the idea of using the court to push a partisan agenda.
His opponent, Susan Crawford, is a Dane County Judge whose campaign is centered on progressive issues like abortion rights and expanding voting laws. Crawford is already heavily funded by national Democratic donors, including billionaire Reid Hoffman, and has been endorsed by every major Democratic political operation in the state.
If Crawford wins, the liberal court will hold its majority until at least 2030, giving Democrats a free hand to redraw the maps, weaken voter ID laws, and expand ballot drop boxes, which were reinstated by the liberal majority last year.
Even Elon Musk has taken notice. The billionaire entrepreneur recently posted on X that it is “very important to vote Republican for the Wisconsin Supreme Court to prevent voting fraud”. The left was quick to attack Musk’s involvement, but the reality is clear: Wisconsin’s court has been making election law rather than interpreting it, and the nation is paying attention.
Democrats have been laying the groundwork to turn Wisconsin’s electoral maps upside down, using the state Supreme Court as a potential tool to secure long-term political advantages. In December 2023, the court’s new liberal majority struck down Republican-drawn legislative maps, calling them unconstitutional and ordering new, more “competitive” district lines to be drawn. This decision has already shifted the state’s political landscape, with Democrats flipping 14 legislative seats in the 2024 elections—a major blow to the Republican stronghold in the state legislature.
But Democrats aren’t stopping there. Their next target is Wisconsin’s congressional map, which currently gives Republicans a 6-2 advantage in the U.S. House of Representatives. If liberals hold onto their one-seat majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, they could take up a legal challenge to redraw the congressional districts and reduce Republican seats from six to four.
This would have enormous national consequences. The U.S. House of Representatives is razor-thin right now, with Republicans holding just 218 seats to Democrats’ 215, plus two vacancies. That means a net loss of just two seats could erase the GOP’s majority entirely, handing control back to the Democrats. Such a shift wouldn’t just impact committee leadership and legislative priorities—it could also block Donald Trump’s entire agenda.
We understand that this would be a Black Swan scenario—an unexpected, high-impact event—but it seems to be an objective of the Democrats that we need to raise awareness about. Their legal strategy to redraw Wisconsin’s congressional districts could tip the scales in Washington, fundamentally reshaping the legislative battlefield for the next presidential term.
Wisconsin voters have been bombarded with political messaging for the last year. Between the presidential campaign ads, Senate races, and non-stop political battles, there is a real risk that voter fatigue could depress turnout—especially among Democrats. AP notes that Democratic strategists are worried their voters “will become distracted by Trump’s actions as president,” pulling attention away from the Supreme Court race. Republican leaders, on the other hand, see an opportunity.
By making this election about protecting the court from judicial activism, they believe they can energize conservative voters who may have sat out the 2023 contest. If they succeed, Wisconsin’s judicial pendulum could swing back in favor of the Constitution.
The fight for control of Wisconsin's laws, elections, and congressional representation goes beyond this state-level judicial election. If Democrats hold their majority, they will have a clear path to redraw Wisconsin’s congressional districts, likely flipping two Republican seats and changing the balance of power in Washington. They will continue striking down conservative election laws, ensuring that every future Wisconsin election tilts in their favor.
If Republicans take back the court, they can block further judicial overreach, protect election security laws, and stop Democratic gerrymandering in its tracks. The choice is clear. For conservatives, this race is about more than just a Supreme Court seat. It’s about preserving the integrity of Wisconsin’s democracy—and ensuring that the courts remain a place of law, not politics.
---