McLaughlin poll: Vance leads 2028 GOP primary; Trump Jr. steady.
Image of McLaughlin & Associates logo screenshot from website.
The McLaughlin & Associates August 2025 national poll offers another snapshot of a Republican primary that has quickly consolidated around J.D. Vance, while testing whether the Trump dynasty can extend its reach into a new political era.
Beneath the headline numbers, the data show early demographic divides, shifting issue priorities, and potential weak spots for both parties heading into the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential cycle.
J.D. Vance continues to command the GOP field with 36%, a lead he has held since spring. His coalition is strongest among conservatives (44%), older voters, and men (35%). He is weaker among moderates and independents, leaving room for a competitor if one can capture those blocs.
Data from National Survey and Political Environment Analysis Likely General Election Voters
Donald Trump Jr., after sliding earlier this year, steadied at 16%. He continues to overperform among younger Republicans and women (17% support), suggesting his brand appeals more to lifestyle conservatives than to policy-driven voters.
Ron DeSantis, once a front-runner, is stuck in single digits at 10%. Despite incremental improvement, his profile has narrowed to college-educated and suburban conservatives. Rubio, Haley, and Ramaswamy consistently poll in the low single digits. The 2028 Republican primary is increasingly shaping up as a two-person race between Vance and Trump Jr., with other candidates struggling to gain traction.
The poll reveals clear fractures inside the GOP coalition, and each one hints at the fight ahead. Older Republicans anchor J.D. Vance’s support, giving him 35% among voters 55 and up, while younger Republicans are more fluid, splitting their interest between Donald Trump Jr. and Ron DeSantis. Gender differences also surface: men lean toward Vance at 36%, but women show greater openness to Trump Jr., with 17% backing him.
Data from National Survey and Political Environment Analysis Likely General Election Voters
Racial and ideological divides reinforce the pattern. Vance posts his strongest numbers among white Republicans at 39% and among self-described conservatives, where he commands 44%. The picture shifts among Hispanic Republicans, where Trump Jr. pulls 10%, and among moderates, who are far less consolidated, with 29% for Vance, 19% for Trump Jr., and 11% for DeSantis. Taken together, the data show Vance tightening his grip on the party’s traditional base while Trump Jr. positions himself as the candidate of younger, more diverse conservatives.
The poll data underscores just how dominant cost-of-living concerns remain for voters. As of August 2025, 79% say inflation and higher costs are impacting their household finances. Within that group, 41% describe themselves as struggling, while 38% feel the impact but are managing. Only 22% report not cutting back.
Data from National Survey and Political Environment Analysis Likely General Election Voters
This financial squeeze explains why inflation and cost of living sit firmly at the top of the issue agenda, with 40% naming it their most important concern. Immigration follows at 14%, while national security, terrorism, and crime all register in the low single digits. Abortion, which once drove Democratic turnout, now garners just 7%, signaling a decline in salience outside core liberal enclaves.
The overall picture is unfavorable for Democrats. Day-to-day economic pressures continue to be the primary concern for swing voters and independents. Issues traditionally motivating Democratic voters, such as abortion and climate, are becoming less prioritized. The data suggests Republicans benefit from an electorate that feels persistently squeezed by rising costs, while Democrats face the challenge of reframing their economic message to compete.
Familiarity with Trump’s recent tax cut bill shows just how deeply his agenda remains embedded in the GOP base. Nationally, 62% of voters say they are familiar with the bill, including 65% of Republicans and 61% of Democrats. Independents trail slightly at 60%, but even here, awareness is high. Among conservatives, familiarity rises to 64%, while liberals register the highest at 72%, underscoring how the legislation has become a touchpoint across the spectrum.
Data from National Survey and Political Environment Analysis Likely General Election Voters
The data illustrate that Trump’s influence is not fading but transforming into a benchmark issue. Candidates in the GOP primary cannot easily run apart from their record, since voters overwhelmingly know it and still connect them to major policy achievements. Rather than a contest over breaking from Trump, the primary looks more like a search for the candidate best able to channel his coalition and carry forward the America First mantle.
The August McLaughlin numbers confirm what has been building since spring: J.D. Vance is the clear Republican front-runner, but Trump Jr. remains the alternative most capable of consolidating voters if Vance falters. DeSantis, Haley, and others continue to lag, and the primary is increasingly shaping into a two-man race.
Republicans need to attract independents by emphasizing economic concerns, while Democrats must recognize the urgency of economic anxiety over their typical priorities like abortion, climate, and democracy. For campaigns looking ahead to 2026, the economy is not merely a priority; it's the sole focus. Candidates who fail to prioritize affordability will lose ground, no matter how strong their cultural or social issue messaging.