Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is warning that a “big pool” of Trump-only voters could become a major liability for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
When DeSantis spoke on Fox & Friends, he warned that “Donald Trump has created a big pool of voters” but that some of them are unique to him, adding that “they’ll go vote for Trump and they’ll vote for all Republicans when Trump is on the ballot, but if he’s not on the ballot, some of them don’t vote.”
DeSantis pointed to a recent special congressional election in Tennessee as evidence of this emerging problem. Republican Tim Van Epps won the race, but the margin was uncomfortably narrow for a solidly Republican district.
“If you have a district that’s like R+20, you shouldn’t have any issues getting that elected,” DeSantis noted.
The Tennessee result serves as a microcosm of the challenge ahead: Republicans cannot simply assume that districts which voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2024 will automatically turn out for down-ballot candidates in 2026.
DeSantis emphasized that this challenge is compounded by traditional midterm election patterns. In off-year midterms, the party in power’s voters tend to be more complacent while the opposition becomes energized.
This historical tendency puts Republicans in a precarious position: not only must they contend with Trump-specific voters who may not show up, but they also face an energized Democratic base motivated by opposition to the party in power.
In that environment, even modest drop-off among Trump-only or irregular Republican voters can flip seats that look safe on paper.
The Florida governor insists the challenge is surmountable, but only if Republicans adopt a bold, results-driven approach. Drawing from his successful 2022 reelection campaign, DeSantis offered a roadmap:
“You can overcome that,” he said, pointing to his landslide victory. “We won by a million and a half votes, 20 points, the biggest Republican win ever. But we did that based on results and substance. We did it by flying under a banner of bold colors, not pale pastels.”
His strategy centered on delivering tangible victories and maintaining relentless offense against progressive policies. “We were sticking it to the left every single day and delivering big victories. So, it can be done.”
DeSantis has frequently cited his administration’s work on parental rights, economic issues, and cultural fights as examples of substantive achievements that resonated with voters beyond Trump’s base.
Image screenshot from The Guardian’s midterm coverage of Ron DeSantis’s 2022 reelection
DeSantis did not mince words about congressional Republicans’ performance, expressing frustration with their lack of productivity.
“What have they done since August? They haven’t done anything,” he said. “If you’re a member of Congress right now, you better be ready to deliver.”
His message is clear: Republicans cannot coast on Trump’s 2024 victory. They must demonstrate competence, pass meaningful legislation, and show voters concrete results if they want to retain their support—especially in districts that may be more Trump-anchored than institutionally Republican.
Florida’s 2022 elections provide a concrete example of DeSantis’s argument. In addition to his own 20-point victory, Republicans flipped four Democratic-held House districts, bringing their total to 20 of the state’s 28 House seats. Senator Marco Rubio also secured reelection.
This success came in a midterm year when Republicans nationally underperformed expectations, making Florida’s results all the more significant.
In DeSantis’s telling, the formula was straightforward but demanding:
For Republicans looking at 2026, Florida stands as a proof of concept that midterm drop-off is a risk—but not an inevitability.
Image screenshot from PBS Wisconsin: Trump supporters at a rally
For Republican candidates and strategists preparing for 2026, DeSantis’s warning carries several urgent implications:
DeSantis’s message to Republicans is both warning and opportunity: the Trump voter coalition is powerful but conditional. Keeping these voters engaged without Trump on the ballot requires bold leadership, substantive accomplishments, and a willingness to wage ideological battle with the left.
The 2026 midterms will test whether Republicans can build on Trump’s success—or whether his unique appeal proves difficult to replicate down-ballot. As DeSantis concluded, “It can be done” – but only with the right strategy, the right message, and the right urgency.