DeSantis Warns: Trump-Only Voters Pose Major Challenge for Republicans in 2026 Midterms

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is warning that a “big pool” of Trump-only voters could become a major liability for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.

What to Know: 

• DeSantis says Trump has built a “big pool” of voters, some of whom are loyal to Trump personally and may not show up when he is not on the ballot.
• A recent Tennessee special election, where the GOP underperformed in a heavily Republican district, is a warning sign that Trump-era margins may not hold in 2026.
• Traditional midterm dynamics already favor an energized opposition; pairing that with Trump-only drop-off could put Republicans at risk in districts they assume are safe.
• DeSantis argues that bold, results-driven governance and clear ideological contrast can overcome these headwinds, pointing to Florida’s 2022 midterm landslide.
• His message to Republicans: don’t coast on Trump’s 2024 victory—deliver tangible results, run on substance, and actively re-engage Trump-motivated voters.

When DeSantis spoke on Fox & Friends, he warned that “Donald Trump has created a big pool of voters” but that some of them are unique to him, adding that “they’ll go vote for Trump and they’ll vote for all Republicans when Trump is on the ballot, but if he’s not on the ballot, some of them don’t vote.”

The Tennessee Warning Sign

DeSantis pointed to a recent special congressional election in Tennessee as evidence of this emerging problem. Republican Tim Van Epps won the race, but the margin was uncomfortably narrow for a solidly Republican district.

“If you have a district that’s like R+20, you shouldn’t have any issues getting that elected,” DeSantis noted.

The Tennessee result serves as a microcosm of the challenge ahead: Republicans cannot simply assume that districts which voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2024 will automatically turn out for down-ballot candidates in 2026.

Understanding the Midterm Dynamics

Image by Gemini

DeSantis emphasized that this challenge is compounded by traditional midterm election patterns. In off-year midterms, the party in power’s voters tend to be more complacent while the opposition becomes energized.

This historical tendency puts Republicans in a precarious position: not only must they contend with Trump-specific voters who may not show up, but they also face an energized Democratic base motivated by opposition to the party in power.

In that environment, even modest drop-off among Trump-only or irregular Republican voters can flip seats that look safe on paper.

DeSantis’s Prescription: “Bold Colors, Not Pale Pastels”

The Florida governor insists the challenge is surmountable, but only if Republicans adopt a bold, results-driven approach. Drawing from his successful 2022 reelection campaign, DeSantis offered a roadmap:

“You can overcome that,” he said, pointing to his landslide victory. “We won by a million and a half votes, 20 points, the biggest Republican win ever. But we did that based on results and substance. We did it by flying under a banner of bold colors, not pale pastels.”

His strategy centered on delivering tangible victories and maintaining relentless offense against progressive policies. “We were sticking it to the left every single day and delivering big victories. So, it can be done.”

DeSantis has frequently cited his administration’s work on parental rights, economic issues, and cultural fights as examples of substantive achievements that resonated with voters beyond Trump’s base.

Image screenshot from The Guardian’s midterm coverage of Ron DeSantis’s 2022 reelection

A Warning to Congressional Republicans

DeSantis did not mince words about congressional Republicans’ performance, expressing frustration with their lack of productivity.

“What have they done since August? They haven’t done anything,” he said. “If you’re a member of Congress right now, you better be ready to deliver.”

His message is clear: Republicans cannot coast on Trump’s 2024 victory. They must demonstrate competence, pass meaningful legislation, and show voters concrete results if they want to retain their support—especially in districts that may be more Trump-anchored than institutionally Republican.

The Florida Model: Proof of Concept

Florida’s 2022 elections provide a concrete example of DeSantis’s argument. In addition to his own 20-point victory, Republicans flipped four Democratic-held House districts, bringing their total to 20 of the state’s 28 House seats. Senator Marco Rubio also secured reelection.

This success came in a midterm year when Republicans nationally underperformed expectations, making Florida’s results all the more significant.

In DeSantis’s telling, the formula was straightforward but demanding:

• Deliver visible policy wins that voters can feel in their daily lives.
• Draw sharp contrasts on ideological and cultural issues.
• Stay on offense and avoid the appearance of drift or complacency.

For Republicans looking at 2026, Florida stands as a proof of concept that midterm drop-off is a risk—but not an inevitability.

Image screenshot from PBS Wisconsin: Trump supporters at a rally

What This Means for Republican Campaigns

For Republican candidates and strategists preparing for 2026, DeSantis’s warning carries several urgent implications:

1. Trump’s endorsement alone won’t be enough.
   Candidates must build their own connection with voters and demonstrate their value independent of the former president.
2. Bold, substantive policy positions matter.
   Voters need clear reasons to show up beyond party loyalty. Economic concerns, education policy, and cultural issues can drive turnout when messaged effectively.
3. Play offense, not defense.
   DeSantis’s model emphasizes relentlessly challenging progressive policies rather than playing it safe. “Be bold” is his simple advice.
4. Results speak louder than rhetoric.
   Congressional Republicans in particular must pass legislation and deliver wins to give 2026 candidates something tangible to run on.
5. Don’t take Trump districts for granted.
   A high Trump vote share in 2024 doesn’t guarantee turnout in 2026. Every race will require genuine voter-mobilization efforts targeted at irregular and Trump-motivated voters.

Wrap Up

DeSantis’s message to Republicans is both warning and opportunity: the Trump voter coalition is powerful but conditional. Keeping these voters engaged without Trump on the ballot requires bold leadership, substantive accomplishments, and a willingness to wage ideological battle with the left.

The 2026 midterms will test whether Republicans can build on Trump’s success—or whether his unique appeal proves difficult to replicate down-ballot. As DeSantis concluded, “It can be done” – but only with the right strategy, the right message, and the right urgency.