Republicans may have Trump at the top of the ticket, but their midterm operation is buckling under the weight of an enthusiasm gap, internal division, and a shaky economic pitch.
What to Know:
- Trump’s absence from the midterm ballot leads to a major enthusiasm drop among Republican voters
- MAGA loyalists, moderate conservatives, and independents are increasingly divided over the GOP’s identity
- GOP-aligned super PACs are investing millions to mobilize prosperity voters through targeted messaging
- Key economic provisions poll well, but the broader GOP message is struggling to connect
- Democrats see an opportunity to flip the House if Republicans can’t solidify their base in time
Donald Trump remains the gravitational force of the GOP, drawing massive support and enthusiasm at the top of the ticket. But when he’s not on the ballot, that energy fizzles. That’s the warning flashing from a new Wall Street Journal/NORC poll and internal GOP research: the base isn’t turning out for the rest of the party.
President Donald Trump speaking about his triumphs; photo via screenshot of video from Truth Social
Should this issue remain unaddressed by 2026, Republicans face the risk of losing control of the House to Democrats. This outcome would jeopardize Trump's governing capacity and initiate new investigations, potentially shaping his second term.
The GOP’s Prosperity Voter Problem
GOP strategists struggle to win over "prosperity voters," self-sufficient individuals who value work and success but don't consistently vote Republican in congressional elections. According to Chris Winkelman, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), a key super PAC aligned with House Speaker Mike Johnson, getting these voters to the polls in the midterms is now an existential project.
Screenshot of webpage for CLF
“We have a chance now to convert these voters and turn this into a party that performs well in midterms,” Winkelman told the Wall Street Journal. “Once we’ve done that, this is a real force multiplier for our party for years to come.”
The outcome is far from certain, but the stakes are extremely clear. The GOP may have the data, the message, and the funding, but unless it can bridge the internal divides and turn prosperity-minded citizens into habitual midterm voters, all that infrastructure could collapse.
Turnout Gap or Identity Crisis?
Even with a relatively successful 2022 cycle behind them, the numbers are sobering. CLF’s own data shows turnout among low- and mid-propensity GOP voters rose from 7% in 2018 to 24% in 2022 across 19 swing House districts. This figure suggests progress, yet it pales in comparison to the 59% who voted for Trump in 2024. The reality? Midterm GOP enthusiasm lags dangerously behind.
Why? Because a growing faction of Republican voters don’t see down-ballot Republicans as worth the effort. MAGA loyalists are all in for Trump but increasingly skeptical of the GOP establishment. The Republican Party faces a potential midterm setback in 2026 due to two key factors: moderate conservatives feel increasingly alienated by the party's hardline stance on cultural issues, and independent voters, particularly working-class individuals concerned about the economy, doubt the GOP's governing capabilities.
Image generated by DALL-E
Even the flagship legislative achievement of this Congress, a sweeping tax-and-spending bill, is not helping. Democrats have successfully branded it as a giveaway to billionaires at the expense of Medicaid and food assistance. A Fox News poll shows nearly half of voters think the legislation would hurt their families; only 23% believe it would help.
The Durable Majority: Is It Fragile?
To counteract this narrative and avoid a potential midterm wipeout in 2026, Republican-aligned groups are mounting an aggressive, multi-tiered response. Leading the charge is the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) and its sister organization, the American Action Network (AAN). The “Durable Majority Project” has been launched as a hybrid initiative that combines voter research, narrative management, and rapid-response media to strengthen vulnerable districts and re-engage disaffected conservative voters.
They’re not alone. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has already identified 26 competitive House districts it aims to flip. It is coordinating heavily with the RNC to ramp up early fundraising and digital infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee (RNC) and National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) are amassing record war chests and even challenging campaign finance limits in court to allow greater coordination between candidates and outside groups.
Outside the official party apparatus, conservative advocacy networks like the Club for Growth, the Conservative Partnership Institute, and the Rockbridge Network are reinforcing the right’s media, legal, and grassroots machinery. These groups are investing in a range of initiatives, from digital voter targeting and alternative press to field operations and candidate pipelines, all with the common objective of maintaining GOP control and preventing a decline in MAGA voter turnout.
An $11 million initiative seeks to mobilize less active Republican voters, including minimum-wage earners, those working overtime, and small business owners, using targeted mail, digital, text, and cable TV campaigns.
According to a memo viewed by the WSJ, key provisions in the GOP bill are polling well in competitive House districts:
- 63% support eliminating federal income tax on tips
- 59% support ending taxes on overtime pay
- 72% support work requirements for Medicaid
- 68% support stronger Medicaid eligibility screenings
Winkelman aims to prioritize a message of economic populism, bridging the gap between Trumpism and Paul Ryan's brand of conservatism. But it’s a tightrope walk. When the same voters hear “cuts to Medicaid” or “tax cuts for the wealthy,” GOP branding crumbles.
A Midterm Test with 2028 Stakes
If Republicans lose the House in 2026, the consequences go far beyond legislative gridlock. Trump’s second term could be consumed by subpoenas, scandal, and even a third impeachment attempt. This highlights the urgent need for GOP strategists to convert prosperity voters into a consistent voting bloc, particularly in elections where Trump is not a candidate.
Image generated by DALL-E
But the deeper question remains: what does the GOP stand for when Trump isn’t in the room? The party has not successfully transitioned from personality-driven politics to sustainable policy-driven appeal. Despite the strong polling on specific provisions, the current economic message struggles to resonate broadly. And its cultural message often alienates the very suburban moderates and young conservatives it needs to keep its coalition together.
Democrats, meanwhile, are watching these fractures closely. As polling from groups like the Progressive Change Institute shows, swing voters are responsive to populist economic messaging—but turned off by political theater and tired of culture wars. If Republicans overplay their hand or can’t connect on the economy, they may find themselves defending a paper-thin majority with no margin for error.
Wrap Up
The 2026 midterms are shaping up to be a referendum—not just on Biden’s opposition or Trump’s influence, but on the Republican Party’s ability to sustain its coalition beyond the cult of personality. The Durable Majority Project is a stopgap, not a strategy. Republicans face an ongoing challenge: until they reconcile MAGA populism with the need for broader governance credibility, they risk not only losing to Democrats but also experiencing internal disintegration.
The clock is ticking, and the House may already be slipping from their grasp.
