Every six years, national analysts predict Collins’s downfall. Every six years, Maine voters remind them that she plays by different rules.
Silver Bulletin asked: Is Susan Collins toast? The argument leaned on national headwinds, eroding ticket-splitting, and Maine’s leftward trend. On paper, she looks like a prime target: the lone Republican incumbent in a Harris-won state with a poor approval rating.
US Senator Susan Collins; image credit WikiCommons
Maine politics does not fit the national mold. As Campaign Now partner John Connors put it:
“The DC chattering class makes the same mistake every six years. They look at national trends and generic ballots, but Susan Collins is not a generic Republican. She is a Maine institution.”
Collins has a record of outperforming expectations. She won by 23 points in 2008 while Barack Obama carried Maine. In 2020, every major poll had her trailing, yet she won comfortably. National models often miss that Maine voters split tickets more than most states and hold Collins to a different standard than national Republicans.
Democrats have not put forward a candidate who looks ready to take her down. Governor Janet Mills, at 77, dismissed the idea of a Senate run, saying she had no desire to move to Washington and was not born with a burning ambition to be in the U.S. Senate.
Governor Janet Mills, image credit via Maine Office of the Governor
Her reluctance has frozen the party’s bench, since other established figures appear to be waiting on her decision before stepping forward. The result is a stalled recruitment effort that signals hesitation and a lack of confidence at the very moment when Democrats need momentum.
Other names in the mix, like Graham Platner, an oyster farmer, and Jordan Wood, an activist, may generate attention in progressive circles and on social media, but they lack the name recognition and political infrastructure needed to build a winning coalition statewide.
Graham Platner (left), Jordan Wood (right); image credits via Senator campaign websites
The supposed “dream candidate” in Mills is already signaling no interest, and the next tier consists of relative unknowns trying to make their mark. With no heavyweight candidate on deck and Collins sitting on a much larger war chest than all her potential challengers combined, the Democratic effort looks underpowered and adrift.
Collins’s strength is built on more than partisanship. In a state of just 1.3 million, retail politics still matter. She is known for personal notes from her staff and hands-on constituent services. This creates a bond with voters that cannot be replicated by national money or television ads.
She also delivers federal dollars. In 2024, she secured $246 million for more than 160 Maine projects. That direct benefit to communities reinforces her appeal to independents and even some Democrats who do not vote Republican in presidential races but trust Collins to deliver for the state.
The Senate map in 2026 leaves Democrats with little margin for error. They must protect incumbents in states such as Minnesota, Nevada, and Michigan, where Republican challengers are expected to spend heavily, while at the same time finding a way to flip at least one Republican-held seat.
Screenshot of Susan Collins from a video on her X profile
On paper, Susan Collins looks like the most obvious target. She is a Republican in a state carried by Kamala Harris in 2024, and national polling suggests she is vulnerable. In practice, however, Collins’s durability creates a trap. If Democrats devote tens of millions of dollars to Maine only to watch her replicate past overperformances, they will have drained resources from races that were far more competitive.
Republicans know this and benefit from Collins’s presence on the ballot. Her established brand gives the GOP a secure anchor in New England, allowing party strategists to focus attention and money on battlegrounds elsewhere. If Collins holds, Democrats will be forced to stretch into much tougher states such as Florida or Texas to have any chance at a majority. That reality underscores why national narratives about her vulnerability can be misleading. Collins’s strength in Maine shapes not only her own race but also the broader fight for Senate control in 2026.
Susan Collins’s strength has never been defined by her party label alone. It is grounded in the personal connection she has built with Mainers over decades of service. Her reputation for responsive constituent work, down to handwritten notes from her staff, reflects a style of politics that feels tangible in a small state of just 1.3 million people. Voters do not view her as an abstract politician who appears only on national television.
Mainers view her as an attentive neighbor who delivers results. Her 2024 achievement of securing over $246 million for 160+ projects demonstrates that her Washington seniority directly benefits her constituents. This explains her continued appeal to independents and crossover Democrats. Analysts see Collins's "Leans Republican" race, not a toss-up, showing resilience over national predictions. Democrats' lack of a strong challenger signals low confidence in flipping the seat.
Collins has built a brand that transcends party affiliation and consistently defies expectations. As Democrats hope for a blue wave in 2026, Collins is preparing for something more familiar to her and to Maine voters: another victory built on trust, seniority, and a deeply personal political identity.