Campaign Now | Grassroots Movement Blog

Project Alamo: The 2016 Case Study in Psychographic Warfare

Written by Samantha Fowler | Oct 28, 2025 6:48:55 AM

The Trump campaign’s 2016 "digital-first" strategy, powered by the Project Alamo database and Cambridge Analytica's OCEAN model, rewrote the political playbook.

What to Know

  • The 2016 Trump campaign's "digital-first" operation, led by Brad Parscale, was a pivotal factor in its victory, with Parscale stating, "Facebook and Twitter were the reason we won this thing."
  • The campaign built "Project Alamo," a massive database containing profiles of 220 million Americans, each with 4,000 to 5,000 data points.
  • Using the "Big Five" OCEAN model, Cambridge Analytica created psychographic profiles to target voters based on personality traits, not just demographics.
  • The campaign ran three major voter suppression operations targeting idealistic white liberals, young women, and African Americans.
  • This strategy contributed to a critical drop in Democratic turnout in key cities like Detroit and Milwaukee, delivering razor-thin, decisive victories in Michigan and Wisconsin.

On the morning of November 8, 2016, nearly every public poll and private model predicted a Hillary Clinton victory. The New York Times famously gave her an 85% chance to win. By the next morning, the political world was in shock. Donald Trump had secured the presidency by winning a handful of Rust Belt states by margins so thin they were statistical noise.

President Donald J. Trump; image credit AP

This upset was not a polling error. It was the result of a revolutionary and largely invisible digital operation. While the Clinton campaign invested heavily in traditional television ads, the Trump campaign, led by digital director Brad Parscale, was spending approximately $70 million per month on a "digital-first" strategy. This operation, centered on a massive database called Project Alamo and the use of psychological profiling, was a case study in modern psychographic warfare.

Project Alamo: The Digital Arsenal

The nerve center of the operation was Project Alamo, a proprietary database and social media machine headquartered in San Antonio, Texas. Built by Parscale’s team, Project Alamo ultimately contained the identities of 220 million people in the United States.

Image by Gemini

This was far more than a simple voter file. The campaign fed the database a constant stream of data, purchasing records from brokers like Experian PLC and Acxiom Corporation. This included public records like voter registrations and gun ownership, as well as consumer data. 

Image by Gemini

The result was a profile for nearly every American adult containing 4,000 to 5,000 distinct data points on their online and offline lives. Project Alamo became the campaign's primary fundraising tool, collecting a dominant $275 million in donations, and the engine for its targeting strategy.

The OCEAN Model of Psychographics

Data alone was not the weapon. The weapon was the application of psychology to that data. The campaign partnered with Cambridge Analytica, a firm that used psychographics to map personality traits based on the "Big Five" or OCEAN model.

Image by Gemini

This model categorizes individuals based on five core traits: Openness (to new experiences), Conscientiousness (perfectionism), Extroversion (sociability), Agreeableness (cooperation), and Neuroticism (easily upset).

By analyzing a user's digital footprint, Cambridge Analytica could predict their personality. This allowed the campaign to move beyond simple demographic targeting (e.g., "women ages 30-45") to psychographic targeting (e.g., "high-Neuroticism, low-Openness voters"). 

Image by Gemini

For example, a message about gun rights could be framed as a "tradition" for an agreeable, conscientious voter, or as a matter of "home defense" for a neurotic, introverted voter.

Microtargeting and 'Dark Posts'

This data was activated on Facebook. The campaign ran a relentless A/B testing operation, generating over 100,000 distinct ads to find the optimal psychological message. These tailored messages were delivered using "dark posts," nonpublic paid ads shown only to the specific audiences the campaign selected.

Image by Gemini

This meant a high-Neuroticism voter in one zip code could see a completely different message than their high-Openness neighbor. This microtargeting was invisible to the media, the Clinton campaign, and the public, making it impossible to counter.

The 'Voter Suppression' Operation

The campaign's most controversial tactic was a systematic effort to shrink the electorate. In the final weeks, the campaign deployed "three major voter suppression operations" aimed at core Clinton demographics.

  1. Idealistic White Liberals: These voters, many of whom had supported Bernie Sanders, were targeted with dark posts highlighting Clinton’s past support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and excerpts from WikiLeaks emails, designed to make them disillusioned and stay home.
  2. Young Women: This group was targeted with ads featuring the women who had accused Bill Clinton of sexual assault, a tactic designed to depress their enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton.
  3. African Americans: The campaign targeted Black voters in key urban areas with a South Park-style animated ad. The ad used audio from Hillary Clinton's 1996 "super predator" speech to frame her as anti-Black, with the explicit goal of depressing turnout.

The Result: A Game of Margins

The strategy worked. Democratic turnout was surprisingly weak in battleground states, particularly in the urban centers Clinton needed to win. In Michigan, which Trump won by just 10,704 votes, turnout in Detroit (Wayne County) cratered. Hillary Clinton received roughly 70,000 fewer votes in the county than Barack Obama did in 2012.

In Wisconsin, which Trump won by about 22,000 votes, the story was the same. Major-party turnout in Milwaukee County plummeted by nearly 76,500 votes compared to 2012. The drop-off in these two counties alone was more than enough to flip both states and, with them, the presidency.

Wrap Up

The 2016 election was the moment psychographic targeting proved its devastating effectiveness. It was a victory won at the margins, demonstrating that in a polarized electorate, it can be more effective to make your opponent’s voters stay home than to persuade a neutral voter to join your side. This digital-first model, built on big data and personality profiling, fundamentally changed campaign strategy.

Looking forward to 2026, the tools will be even more sophisticated. While Cambridge Analytica is gone, the methods of Project Alamo are now standard practice. Campaigns no longer just count likely voters; they model their personalities, their fears, and their triggers. The invisible digital battlefield of 2016 is now the primary front in all modern political warfare.