Texas primaries are unlikely to produce clear nominees, setting up high-stakes May runoffs with national consequences for Senate control and the House majority.
March 3 will not end the fight in Texas. It will likely extend it. As highlighted in the February 19 Inside Elections briefing distributed by AAPC, more than a dozen consequential primaries are converging at once, from a volatile Republican Senate showdown to redistricting-fueled House battles that have scrambled incumbent security and intensified factional divides.
Under Texas law, candidates must secure more than 50% of the vote to win outright, meaning even well-funded frontrunners are preparing for a May 26 runoff rather than assuming a one-night finish.
At the top of the ballot, Sen. John Cornyn faces Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt in a three-way Republican primary shaped by Trump’s influence and his notable neutrality, while Democrats are navigating a high-profile contest between Reps. Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico.
Down ballot, newly drawn districts have triggered crowded GOP primaries and exposed vulnerabilities on both sides of the aisle, placing Texas at the center of early House majority math. With control of Congress likely to hinge on nominee quality, turnout mechanics, and coalition discipline, Texas is not simply holding a primary. It is staging the first structural test of the 2026 midterm cycle.
Texas election law requires a candidate to win more than 50% of the vote to secure a party nomination outright. Falling short triggers a runoff between the top two finishers. The runoff date this cycle is May 26. This structure rewards consolidation and punishes fragmented coalitions. In crowded fields, even a frontrunner polling in the high 30s is structurally disadvantaged.
In crowded fields, even a frontrunner polling in the high 30s can be structurally disadvantaged. A candidate leading with 38% or 39% may appear dominant, yet still be mathematically headed for overtime. That reality forces campaigns to prepare for two elections rather than one, with messaging, cash reserves, and turnout operations built for endurance.
Critics argue the system carries real consequences beyond campaign math. Texas State Representative Carl Sherman has filed legislation int the past aimed at reforming the runoff structure, citing the sharp drop in participation between rounds.
“When you look at the falloff in voters, we’re not really getting a true representation of the electorate. It’s a system that can be manipulated because of the low voter turnout.”
Runoff elections typically see lower participation and a more ideologically concentrated electorate. That dynamic can amplify activist energy while disadvantaging candidates who rely on broader but softer support.
For campaigns, it means budgeting for two battles. For national parties, it means Texas headlines may stretch deep into late spring, with consequences that ripple well beyond state lines.
The Republican Senate primary is the centerpiece of the March 3 ballot. Sen. John Cornyn, a long-serving incumbent, is facing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. The contest has become a proxy fight between establishment durability and insurgent populism.
Senator John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Representative Wesley Hunt
Cornyn is campaigning on experience, seniority, and electability. Paxton is running as a combative conservative with strong grassroots appeal but significant legal and ethical baggage. Hunt positions himself as a next-generation conservative with ties to the MAGA base but without Paxton’s controversies.
In Fort Worth, Cornyn delivered his starkest warning yet about what a Paxton nomination could mean in November.
“If Ken Paxton is the nominee, we could well experience a massacre, and the first Democrat elected since 1994 in the state of Texas.”
He has framed the race as a firewall moment, arguing that Republicans are “risking President Trump’s agenda” and the stability of the entire Texas ticket if they gamble on a nominee carrying significant legal and ethical baggage.
The polling picture explains the urgency. A University of Houston survey found Paxton at 38%, Cornyn at 31%, Hunt at 17%, with 12% undecided. Other recent surveys show the race compressed in the high 20s, reinforcing the likelihood of a runoff and underscoring a more troubling data point for the incumbent: Cornyn’s support has largely flatlined despite tens of millions in advertising support.
Data from University of Houston
Paxton is running as a combative conservative with strong grassroots appeal. He survived impeachment by the Texas House in 2023 and was later acquitted by the Senate, a saga that hardened his base but also reinforced concerns among establishment Republicans. Cornyn has seized on that vulnerability, telling voters:
“When you nominate a flawed individual with the sort of political baggage that Ken Paxton has, you are risking all that.”
Yet Paxton’s supporters view those controversies as evidence of ideological conviction rather than disqualification. His campaign has amplified attacks on Cornyn as disconnected from the conservative base, and the contest has spilled into open hostility between camps.
In recent days, Rep. Wesley Hunt filed a criminal complaint after alleging that a senior member of Cornyn’s campaign released personal information about his family online, escalating tensions inside an already fractured primary. Hunt, positioning himself as a next-generation conservative with ties to the MAGA base but without Paxton’s controversies, is attempting to consolidate voters who want ideological alignment without legal turbulence. His path to victory is narrow, but his presence complicates the math. In a race where finishing second is enough to advance, even a candidate polling in the mid-teens can prevent either frontrunner from clearing a majority.
Trump’s neutrality remains a decisive variable. According to Fox News, when asked about the race, the president declined to endorse any of the three candidates, stating:
“I just haven’t made a decision on that race yet. It’s got a ways to go… I like all three of them, actually.”
That posture leaves the field unsettled. Without a unifying endorsement, Republican voters are left to sort through competing claims of loyalty, electability, and ideological purity on their own. For campaigns and national operatives, the central question is not who leads on March 3. It is who can consolidate support in a May 26 runoff, where turnout historically drops and becomes more ideologically concentrated. Cornyn’s challenge is not simply to survive. It is to prove he can grow.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett faces state Rep. James Talarico in a contest that has exposed internal party tensions over tone, coalition strategy, and electability. The race has drawn significant outside money, including at least $5.4 million in pro-Talarico super PAC spending, signaling that national Democratic actors view the nomination as strategically important even in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
Representative Jasmine Crockett and Representative James Talarico
The question facing primary voters is not ideological alignment alone. It is what kind of messenger gives Democrats their clearest path in November. Crockett has built her brand as a combative communicator who thrives in confrontation. At a recent Fort Worth community event, she framed the moment in existential terms, urging Democrats to match Republican intensity.
“Sometimes when you decide to hit a bully… you may end up knocking that bully out.”
She has also leaned into turnout expansion, citing early voting data in Dallas County that showed a dramatic spike in participation.
“Instead of seeing the normal 4,000 votes that we did, we got 12,000 votes… 20% of those voters were first-time voters.”
Her argument is clear. Texas is not unwinnable because of persuasion deficits alone. It is unwinnable because of chronic underinvestment and turnout collapse. Mobilize new and irregular voters, and the map shifts. Crockett has also accused unnamed actors of racially charged attacks in the primary. Speaking to supporters and later reported by Fox News, she said:
“When they’re sending out ads and they’re darkening my skin… I know what this is.”
That allegation has injected race directly into the Democratic contest and intensified scrutiny of outside spending and digital tactics.
Talarico offers a different theory of victory. A former middle school teacher and current seminarian, he frames the divide less as left versus right and more as economic populism aimed at billionaires and entrenched power. In campaign messaging and widely viewed TikTok clips, he argues:
“The biggest divide in this country is not left versus right. It’s top versus bottom.”
According to reporting by the Associated Press and other outlets covering the race’s digital strategy, Talarico has emphasized cross-partisan appeal and faith-inflected language to broaden the coalition. He regularly invokes Christian theology on the trail and on podcasts, arguing that Democrats must speak fluently about faith in red states. On his campaign page, he writes:
“The biggest divide in this country is not left vs. right. It’s top vs. bottom.”
The stylistic contrast is stark. Crockett’s viral congressional exchanges and sharp-edged rhetoric energize activists and dominate social media feeds. Talarico’s longer-form interviews and religious framing aim to reassure moderates and peel away culturally conservative voters uneasy with national Republican politics.
Even in a two-way race, the 50% rule looms. If neither candidate crosses the majority threshold on March 3, Democrats will head to a May 26 runoff, where turnout historically drops and becomes more ideologically concentrated. That dynamic could favor the candidate with the most motivated base, or the one best able to reassemble a broader coalition in a compressed window.
Redistricting is reshaping the Texas House map in ways that force candidates to reintroduce themselves, rebuild coalitions, and survive intraparty turbulence before they can even compete in a general election. The through-line is nomination risk. A seat can look safe on paper and still become operationally fragile if the primary produces a nominee who cannot hold the middle in November.
In TX-23, a sprawling border district stretching from San Antonio to El Paso, Rep. Tony Gonzales once again faces pressure from his right flank. The district is geographically vast and politically balanced, with a heavy border security focus and a history of tight margins that make candidate profile critical.
Gonzales must navigate a primary electorate skeptical of bipartisan votes while preserving the broader appeal required to survive in November. As NBC News noted in its February primary preview:
“GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales is set for a rematch against Brandon Herrera, a hard-right gun activist who fell just a few hundred votes short of upsetting him in 2024.”
For Gonzales, the immediate task is not just advancing. It is emerging from March 3 without damaging his standing in a district that has proven it can swing.
In TX-34, which anchors the lower Rio Grande Valley, the current contest centers on Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who holds the seat after past redistricting changes, and Republican Mayra Flores, the former congresswoman who briefly flipped a neighboring Valley district in a 2022 special election. Flores became the first Republican woman elected to Congress from Texas and built her brand around border security, cultural conservatism, and outreach to Hispanic voters. Her reemergence in the district signals that Republicans view the Valley not as symbolic terrain, but as competitive ground.
Former Rep. Mayra Flores, Rep. Vincente Gonzalez, and Rep. Eric Flores
Former Rep. Mayra Flores, who flipped a border district in a 2022 special election before losing it in the subsequent general, has rejected claims that redistricting weakens Hispanic representation. Speaking to Fox News Digital, she argued the opposite.
“Four of the five new districts are actually Hispanic-majority districts… This map actually is more of a representation of what Texas is today.”
Flores has framed the realignment as ideological rather than demographic, arguing that conservative Hispanics are reshaping the Valley’s political identity around border security, religious values, and economic messaging.
Democrats, however, see the region as contested but salvageable. The New York Times, reporting from McAllen and Edinburg, described the broader fight in South Texas as a struggle over whether to run left or elevate candidates who can win back culturally moderate voters in November. The central tension is not simply partisan. It is strategic.
TX-10 is an open seat stretching from portions of liberal Travis County through Brazos County and deep into bright-red East Texas. The district would have given Donald Trump roughly 60% of the vote under its current configuration, but its geography forces candidates to appeal to suburban Austin voters, rural conservatives, and the Texas A&M orbit simultaneously. With Rep. Michael McCaul retiring after more than two decades, the race has become a test of how fully the district aligns with the Trump-era GOP.
According to The Texas Tribune, Republicans in both Texas and Washington have consolidated behind attorney Chris Gober, the former chief lawyer for Elon Musk’s America PAC, who has raised more than $1 million and secured endorsements from Trump, Gov. Greg Abbott, Sen. Ted Cruz, and House Speaker Mike Johnson.
At a February candidate forum in Livingston, Gober framed his candidacy in institutional terms.
“When I go to Washington, D.C., we’re going to take on the institution. We’re going to secure the borders, we are going to fight fraud, waste and abuse and this reckless spending that is bankrupting our country.”
His campaign rhetoric leans even more explicitly into alignment with Trump’s agenda. Political scientists interviewed by The Texas Tribune noted the weight of that endorsement structure in a crowded field of ten Republicans.
“A Trump endorsement in these types of races is worth its weight in gold. The most beneficial signal you can send in these races to a Republican primary voter is that you are endorsed by Donald Trump.”
Still, with the size of the field and the 50% rule in place, a runoff remains likely. For TX-10 voters, the immediate question is not just who can win in November. It is whether the district replaces McCaul’s more traditional national security profile with a more doctrinaire MAGA voice, and how that shift would play inside a district that blends university towns, fast-growing suburbs, and deeply rural counties.
TX-32 is anchored in the Dallas metro suburbs and was previously considered a reliably Democratic seat. Redistricting has altered the district’s composition, creating a more competitive environment and drawing a crowded Republican primary field.
In a suburban district where margins are often narrow, endorsements and donor networks can meaningfully influence primary turnout and shape the ideological direction of the nominee. Jace Yarbrough, a lawyer and Air Force reservist, has attracted support from high-profile conservative donors and received a public endorsement from Donald Trump.
That backing provides institutional validation in a multi-candidate field where primary voters often rely on recognizable signals when making their decision.
“He is an America First Patriot, and a Brave Air Force Veteran. HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!” — Donald Trump, Truth Social endorsement
At a candidate forum, Yarbrough emphasized his governing priorities in direct terms.
“We no longer share common values with people that we see in the grocery store or at our public schools, people that are at the local mall.”
In a redrawn suburban district, the interaction between national endorsements and local voter sentiment will help determine whether that message consolidates the base or narrows the coalition.
In TX-2, Rep. Dan Crenshaw faces a serious primary challenge from state Rep. Steve Toth in a district that remains strongly Republican but is increasingly defined by internal ideological tests. The seat stretches across parts of northern Harris County and Montgomery County, including Kingwood and The Woodlands, areas known for high GOP turnout and donor activity. The contest has evolved into a referendum on loyalty to Trump, foreign policy posture, and what it means to be a “real” conservative in 2026.
Representative Dan Crenshaw and Representative Steve Toth
Crenshaw, a four-term congressman and former Navy SEAL, has emphasized his legislative record on border security, cartel enforcement, energy policy, and flood mitigation funding for the district. But he is the only Texas House Republican incumbent facing a competitive primary without a Trump endorsement so far, a dynamic that has fueled attacks from his right flank.
“If you think I’m not MAGA enough, then you’re not following me on social media, that’s the reality.”
Toth, a longtime conservative figure in the Texas House, has framed the race as a fight over whether Republicans will aggressively wield power or drift toward moderation.
“We’ve got to be unashamed in our willingness to wield power and do the right thing.”
In a district that would have backed Trump by more than twenty points under its current lines, the primary will test whether institutional conservatism or insurgent intensity defines the next chapter of TX-2.
In summary, these races matter for more than local bragging rights. The House majority remains narrow. A handful of seats in Texas can shift the balance. Redistricting has increased Republican opportunities in some areas but also created risk if primary nominees are poorly positioned for the general electorate.
Texas primaries are rarely clean, and this cycle underscores that reality. With the March 3 contests likely to send multiple races to May 26 runoffs, the calendar itself becomes part of the strategy. Candidates must budget for two elections, recalibrate messaging between rounds, and prepare for a smaller, more ideologically concentrated electorate in the second phase.
The implications extend well beyond state lines. Senate control in 2026 could hinge on nominee quality in large battleground states, while House control may be decided by a narrow band of districts reshaped by redistricting and defined by primary dynamics. Texas is providing an early stress test. Campaigns that understand runoff math, coalition consolidation, endorsement signaling, and turnout elasticity will hold a structural advantage heading into November.
