The Great Flip Revisited: How Pivot Counties Shaped the 2024 Map

In 2024, pivot counties did not swing back. They moved further right, reshaping outcomes in key battleground states and narrowing the strategic path forward for Democrats.

What to Know

• Donald Trump won 197 of the 206 pivot counties in 2024, while Kamala Harris won nine.
• Trump’s average margin in pivot counties was R+18.4, compared with D+2.3 in the counties Harris carried.
• Pivot counties again leaned more Republican than non-pivot swing areas in the same states.
• In Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, pivot county margins materially affected statewide outcomes.
• The 2024 results confirm that most pivot counties are no longer true swing territory heading into 2026.

Pivot counties once represented the most unpredictable part of the American electorate. These were the counties that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, then flipped to Donald Trump in 2016. For nearly a decade, they were treated as proof that large numbers of voters were still up for grabs.

The 2024 election delivered a different verdict. Pivot counties did not oscillate. They consolidated. Trump expanded his margins in most of them, while Harris struggled to regain ground even where Democrats invested heavily. The result was a map where pivot counties again helped determine outcomes in several battleground states, but in a more one-sided way than in past cycles.

Pivot Counties in 2024: The National Picture

Ballotpedia’s 2024 analysis shows that Trump carried 197 of the 206 pivot counties, winning them by an average margin of 18.4 percentage points. Harris won 9, and her average margin in those counties was just 2.3 points.

Data from Ballotpedia

That gap matters. In earlier elections, pivot counties were competitive enough that small shifts could change the outcome. In 2024, most of them were not close. Trump’s performance in pivot counties outpaced his national margin, reinforcing their role as a structural advantage rather than a volatile one.

For campaigns, this distinction is critical. Pivot counties are no longer simply places to test persuasion messages. They are increasingly places where turnout and base maintenance favor Republicans unless Democrats can dramatically alter conditions.

Pivot vs. Non-Pivot Swing Areas

One of the clearest findings from 2024 is the widening gap between pivot counties and other swing areas within the same states. Non-pivot swing counties, particularly suburban and metro-adjacent areas, were far more competitive for Democrats than pivot counties.

This divergence complicates campaign strategy. Winning statewide office increasingly requires stitching together different coalitions that behave very differently across county types.

Wisconsin Pivot Counties Defined the Margin

Wisconsin remains one of the clearest examples of pivot county influence. The state’s pivot counties, particularly in western and northern Wisconsin, again delivered strong margins for Trump. These counties offset Democratic gains in Madison and parts of Milwaukee County, contributing directly to the statewide result.

While non-pivot suburban areas showed some resistance to Trump, the size and consistency of his margins in pivot counties reduced the room for error for Democrats. For Wisconsin campaigns, this means that even strong urban turnout may not be sufficient without improved performance in rural and small-town counties that once leaned Democratic.

Michigan Reinforced Trends in the Industrial Belt

Michigan’s pivot counties stretch across older industrial centers and rural communities in both peninsulas, and in 2024 they continued moving in a consistent direction. Trump did not simply hold these counties. In most cases, he expanded his margins compared with 2020, reinforcing a trend that has been building since 2016. Places like Bay, Calhoun, Isabella, and Manistee all delivered double-digit Republican margins again, while Lake and Monroe posted some of the largest Republican advantages in the state, with margins exceeding twenty points.

Even in counties where races remained closer, the direction was unmistakable. Eaton and Saginaw, once reliable Democratic contributors, stayed narrowly Republican after sitting near parity just four years earlier. Macomb County, long viewed as the symbolic heart of Michigan’s working-class swing vote, moved further right as well, giving Trump a fourteen-point margin and neutralizing Democratic gains elsewhere.

Detroit and its surrounding counties continued to deliver strong Democratic margins, but the scale of Republican performance in pivot counties diluted their impact. Each additional point added in the industrial belt and rural counties raised the threshold Democrats needed to clear in urban areas, tightening the statewide contest even in a year of solid metropolitan turnout.

Pennsylvania Rural Strength and Suburban Growth

Pennsylvania’s pivot counties remain concentrated outside the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro areas, and in 2024 they continued to provide Republicans with a durable advantage across the state’s interior. Luzerne County stands out as the clearest example. Once a core part of the Democratic coalition, it delivered Trump a twenty-point margin, reinforcing a shift that has now held across three election cycles. That kind of performance forces Democrats to compensate elsewhere and raises the cost of every statewide race.

Data from Ballotpedia

Other pivot counties were closer but no less consequential. Erie and Northampton stayed within a few points, yet neither returned to anything resembling their Obama-era alignment. Even narrow Republican wins in these counties mattered because they limited how much Democratic gains in population centers could translate into statewide movement. The interior did not need to swing hard to shape the outcome. It only needed to hold.

At the same time, Democrats continued to improve in suburban counties around Philadelphia, keeping Pennsylvania competitive. But the tension between suburban growth and rural strength now defines the state’s political map. Pivot counties may not decide Pennsylvania on their own, but without stabilizing them, Democrats are left with an increasingly narrow path that depends on near-perfect execution elsewhere.

Wrap Up

The 2024 results make one thing clear. Pivot counties are no longer evenly contested ground. For Republicans, they function as a stabilizing base that allows campaigns to allocate resources with greater confidence elsewhere. For Democrats, they have become a narrowing point of exposure, not because they no longer matter, but because recovering lost ground now requires sustained effort rather than late-cycle persuasion.

That reality forces sharper strategic choices heading into 2026. Democrats will have to decide whether to commit to long-term rebuilding in pivot counties or concentrate on non-pivot swing areas where movement is still achievable at lower cost. Republicans, meanwhile, face the opposite challenge: maintaining strength in pivot counties while guarding against erosion in suburban districts that remain competitive. 

The era when pivot counties symbolized volatility has passed. Today, they operate as a baseline signal of where persuasion has stalled and where turnout and trust will be hardest to rebuild. Campaigns that plan around that constraint, rather than resisting it, will enter the next cycle with a clearer and more realistic path forward. 

Read more about the Great Flip here: Resonate Analyzes the Great Voting Flip