Governors’ Races to Watch: 2026’s Unlikely Power Shifts

Based on analysis from Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin in Inside Elections’ April 17, 2025 AAPC Special Report, Volume 9, No. 8.

What to Know:

Governors’ races in 2026 could reshape national politics, especially in swing states critical to the 2028 presidential map.
Democrats are defending vulnerable territory, but GOP infighting and weak candidates could sabotage key pickup chances.
States like Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are frontlines in the battle over turnout, party identity, and governing power.
Open seats in red states like Kansas and Iowa carry surprise upset potential if Republicans nominate hardliners.
Inside Elections warns that no party has the advantage—local dynamics and candidate quality will decide control.

Inside Elections' Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin offer a sharp forecast of these contests, warning that while Democrats are on defense, Republicans risk squandering opportunities with divisive primaries and underperforming candidates. As they write,

“Democrats have significant exposure, but opportunities exist if Republicans bungle their openings.”

While national attention barrels toward Senate control in the 2026 midterms, the real battleground might be closer to home: governors’ races in key swing states that could redefine the national political landscape for a decade.

Shifting Sands in the Sun Belt

In Arizona, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs faces a volatile electorate and energized Republican base. While Hobbs narrowly defeated Kari Lake in 2022, her approval ratings remain fragile. If Republicans consolidate around a more traditional conservative—possibly Karrin Taylor Robson—the race could tilt in their favor. Arizona, long a political enigma, remains firmly in battleground territory.

Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs speaks at an event in Phoenix, January 10, 2025. Photo by Gage Skidmore, via Wikimedia Commons.

New Mexico's governor’s race is attracting far less attention than it deserves, notes Gonzales and Rubashkin’s report. With Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham term-limited, Republicans see an opening. No GOP heavyweight has declared, but history proves New Mexico can swing hard with the right national winds. Democrats like Deb Haaland, should she enter, would be formidable, but the race remains fluid.

In Georgia, the departure of Republican Governor Brian Kemp leaves a power vacuum. Kemp skillfully balanced Trump-world skepticism with conservative governance, making him a rare unifier in the modern GOP. Without him, Republicans face a bruising primary, with names like Attorney General Chris Carr and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones floated. Democrats see an opportunity—especially if they can court suburban moderates who fled Trump but respected Kemp’s leadership.

Rust Belt Showdowns

Nowhere is the 2026 gubernatorial map more combustible than in the Midwest. In Michigan, Governor Gretchen Whitmer is not seeking re-election, sparking a scramble on both sides. Democrats are eyeing rising stars like State Senator Mallory McMorrow, while Republicans appear poised to back Rep. John James, a military veteran with growing national credentials. Michigan is shaping up to be one of the fiercest contests of the cycle.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer attends an official event in Detroit, November 30, 2023. City of Detroit, Public Domain.

Wisconsin remains a partisan pressure cooker. Democratic Governor Tony Evers has narrowly won his last two races, surviving by turnout strength in Madison and Milwaukee. But GOP dominance in the legislature and continued court fights over voting access create a high-stakes environment. Even a modest dip in Democratic enthusiasm could flip the race.

In Iowa, Governor Kim Reynolds is stepping aside, opening a seat in what many assume is safe Republican territory. But open races breed chaos. Should the GOP nominate a hardliner out of sync with suburban voters, Democrats—possibly led by State Auditor Rob Sand—may have a chance to surprise.

The Northeast Wild Cards

The Empire State might get a dose of chaos if Rep. Elise Stefanik makes a gubernatorial run. Her MAGA-aligned brand would electrify the Republican base, but could backfire statewide. Governor Kathy Hochul faces internal Democratic fatigue, and if Stefanik enters, Rep. Mike Lawler may abandon his rumored gubernatorial plans to shore up his own vulnerable House seat.

U.S. Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY), official portrait for the 115th Congress. Photo Credit: United States House of Representatives, Public Domain.

Maine’s race is wide open with Governor Janet Mills retiring. Democrats are slightly favored, but Republicans hope to exploit the state’s independent streak with a moderate candidate. A potential GOP contender could be former congressman Bruce Poliquin, though no major names have declared. Maine’s electorate is quirky enough to make even a long-shot viable.

Red-State Risk and Blue-State Ambition

In Kansas, Democrats face steep odds holding the governorship after Laura Kelly exits. But Republicans shouldn’t be overconfident. In 2022, Kelly benefited from moderate Republicans rejecting hard-right nominees—a scenario that could repeat if the GOP base drives another unelectable candidate through the primary.

Governor Laura Kelly of Kansas, official portrait, December 14, 2018. Photo Credit:
Office of the Governor of Kansas. Public Domain.

Nevada is a top Democratic flip target. Republican Governor Joe Lombardo is seeking re-election in a state where Democrats dominate federal races and have robust union infrastructure. Attorney General Aaron Ford is rumored to run, and Democrats believe a strong candidate could mobilize urban voters in Las Vegas and Reno to reclaim the state.

The Keystone Re-Election Test

Pennsylvania rounds out the watchlist with Governor Josh Shapiro preparing for re-election. After Trump’s 2024 victory in the Keystone State, Republicans are desperate to reclaim the governorship. But Shapiro’s pragmatic brand and high approval ratings make him a tough incumbent to topple. His campaign will serve as a bellwether for whether Democrats can still hold suburban coalition ground under a second Trump presidency.

Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania attends the 148th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Track, May 20, 2023. Photo Credit:
Maryland GovPics, via Wikimedia Commons.

Wrap Up

Governors elected in 2026 won’t just manage state budgets—they’ll shape national debates on redistricting, reproductive rights, healthcare, and voting access. In key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, a governorship can be the difference between election integrity or chaos in 2028.

Inside Elections cautions that “the 2026 map favors neither party outright.” Instead, outcomes will hinge on local dynamics, candidate quality, and the fallout—good or bad—of President Trump’s second-term agenda.

For all the noise surrounding Senate control, it’s the governors who may quietly tip the scales of American democracy. With multiple open seats and few guaranteed wins, both parties are staring down a high-risk, high-reward battlefield.