Trump’s 2024 Victory Upended Pollsters, Crushed Democrats, and Rewired Washington

Brent Buchanan breaks down the election shocker on Morning Wire.

What to Know: 

  • Trump won the presidency, the popular vote, and secured GOP control of both the House and Senate.

  • Trump won voters who prioritized the economy by 60 points and those focused on illegal immigration by 89 points.

  • Independent voters in Pennsylvania were 25 points less enthusiastic about Harris after she campaigned with Liz Cheney.

  • Among Hispanic voters who opposed sex changes for minors, 52% became more likely to vote for Trump; among Black voters concerned about men in women’s sports, 45% shifted toward Trump.

  • Voters who got their news from streaming services favored Trump by 26 points, while traditional media consumers backed Harris by up to 48 points.

Donald Trump’s 2024 comeback wasn’t just a victory—it was a complete recalibration of American politics. In his third bid for the presidency, Trump didn’t just reclaim the White House; he won the popular vote, dominated the electoral college, and led the GOP to majorities in both the House and Senate.

For years, political analysts insisted Trump had a voter ceiling he couldn’t break. That assumption collapsed on election night when, at precisely 10:02 p.m., Cygnal Polling Group founder Brent Buchanan called the race. Appearing on Morning Wire, a Daily Wire podcast hosted by John Bickley, Buchanan explained what made him so confident so early.

“When you looked at some of the key counties within the swing states, you could see that he was doing so well... that what made those counties good for him could be replicated across the other swing states,” Buchanan told Bickley. But it wasn’t just Trump’s dominance—it was about those who flipped and, surprisingly, those who didn’t show up at all.

The Voter Shift That Decided 2024

Trump’s victory was built on crucial demographic swings. He didn’t just maintain his base; he expanded it, especially among Hispanic voters and blue-collar workers in the Rust Belt. “Miami-Dade County has been really interesting,” Buchanan noted. “It has a highly Hispanic population, but it’s more Cuban and Venezuelan... not really replicable across the rest of the country.” 

But Trump’s success with Hispanic voters went beyond Miami. In Orlando, where the Hispanic population is largely Puerto Rican, he still outperformed expectations, proving that media-driven panic about a comedian’s joke at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally had no real impact​.

Blue-collar voters in places like Macomb County, Michigan—historically a Democratic stronghold—also continued shifting toward Trump. The reason? Economics. “If Trump is winning union voters who’ve been moving his direction and they’re showing up in significant numbers, this is going to continue across the rest of the swing states and really the country as a whole,” Buchanan explained​.

Harris’s Campaign Missteps

Harris’s strategy in the final days of the campaign focused heavily on democracy and abortion rights. But as Buchanan explained on Morning Wire, those weren’t the top issues for most voters. “In our final exit poll on election day, [threats to democracy] ended up being the number two issue, almost tying with inflation and the economy," he said. 

But here’s the problem: voters who prioritized the economy backed Trump by 60 points, while those who prioritized illegal immigration supported him by 89 points. Meanwhile, Harris dominated among voters who ranked abortion and democracy as their top concerns—but those groups simply didn’t turn out in the numbers Democrats needed​.

Data source: Morning Wire and Cygnal Polling Group

Harris also made a last-minute campaign push with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, a move that alienated key independent voters. Polling from Michigan and Pennsylvania found that independent voters were 18 points more enthusiastic about Harris when she focused on economic issues. But when she campaigned with Cheney, enthusiasm dropped by 7 points, resulting in a 25-point swing in Pennsylvania and an 18-point swing in Michigan​.

The Role of Media and Alternative News

One of the biggest underreported stories of 2024 was the continued decline of legacy media’s influence. As Buchanan explained, alternative media played a crucial role in shaping the race. “If you get your news from talk radio, it’s Trump +40. Facebook, Trump +22,” he noted. Meanwhile, traditional news consumers overwhelmingly backed Harris: “People who told us in our exit poll that they get their news from national television, like ABC, NBC, [and] CBS, they voted for Harris by 39 points. Newspapers? Harris by 48 points.”


Source: Morning Wire interview with Brent Buchanan from Cygnal Polling Group

Even worse, fewer people are depending on those sources. Instead, they’re turning to alternative media, podcasts, and streaming platforms. “If you get your news from a streaming app, you voted for Donald Trump by 26 points,” Buchanan revealed​.

Trump capitalized on this shift by bypassing traditional media entirely. His appearances on The Joe Rogan Experience and This Past Weekend with Theo Von helped him reach a massive male audience that had previously been overlooked by political campaigns. Women only made up 53% of voters this year, down from 54% in every past election, Buchanan noted.

The Cultural Backlash

Beyond economics, cultural issues also played a decisive role in reshaping the electorate. Buchanan pointed to a post-election survey by the American Principles Project, which tested campaign messaging related to transgender issues. The results were striking:

  • 52% of Hispanic voters who said that “sex changes for minors” mattered to them became more likely to vote for Trump.

  • 45% of Black voters concerned about “men in women’s sports” also shifted toward Trump.

These shifts weren’t just anecdotal. They reflected a broader rejection of progressive social policies that many voters saw as extreme.

Wrap Up 

Trump’s 2024 win wasn’t just another Republican victory—it was a fundamental realignment of American politics. But Buchanan warned that the GOP shouldn’t take these new voters for granted. “They moved to Trump, they did not move to Republicans,” he emphasized. “[T]here’s a whole lot of work to still be done in building real relationships, not just election-day relationships with these folks.”

For Democrats, the challenge is even greater. Harris’s campaign proved that focusing on ideological battles at the expense of economic concerns is a losing strategy. Now, the party faces a difficult choice: double down on progressive policies or work to rebuild trust with working-class and minority voters who felt abandoned.

Either way, the 2024 election sent a clear message. Voters aren’t just rejecting candidates—they’re rejecting the media narratives, the elite political class, and the progressive cultural shift. And in November, they made it loud and clear: they want their country back.

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John Connors

John Connors

John is a passionate patriot and business owner. He launched Campaign Now in 2008 to help free-market oriented, American organizations increase their reach and achieve important results. When he’s not strategizing growth plans with clients, you can find him sharpening his history chops, playing tennis in the Texas heat, or spending time with family.

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