Progressive legal groups file twin lawsuits that could eliminate two GOP-held congressional seats in Wisconsin.
What to Know:
- Two lawsuits filed in May 2025 challenge Wisconsin’s GOP-favoring congressional map.
- The liberal Wisconsin Supreme Court is likely to fast-track the case.
- A redraw could flip two GOP seats, giving Democrats an edge going into the 2026 Midterms.
- Republicans call it a power grab; Democrats say it fixes gerrymandering.
In a legal move with national repercussions, two lawsuits filed in May 2025 are challenging the constitutionality of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts. The cases, submitted directly to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, accuse current maps of being gerrymandered in favor of Republicans, in violation of state constitutional requirements.
Represented by the progressive law firm Law Forward, the petitioners claim that Republican mapmakers have unfairly concentrated and split Democratic voting blocs, reducing electoral competitiveness and silencing voters across the state. These filings come on the heels of a landmark redistricting decision in December 2024, when the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down state legislative maps drawn by Republicans. Legal observers widely expected the congressional maps to be next.
How the 2025 Supreme Court Election Set This in Motion
The current legal climate was cemented during the April 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election, in which liberal candidate Susan Crawford defeated conservative Brad Schimel, a former Waukesha County judge. The race, echoing the high-stakes drama of 2023, became a referendum on partisan gerrymandering and the court's future. Nearly $100 million was spent on the campaign, making it one of the most expensive judicial elections in American history.
Susan Crawford; Source: Crawford Campaign Site
Crawford’s victory expanded the court’s liberal majority, reinforcing the ideological shift that began with Janet Protasiewicz’s win in 2023. During the campaign, Schimel warned that a liberal court would move quickly to redraw both legislative and congressional maps—warnings that are now materializing as two lawsuits land before the court. With Law Forward leading the legal charge, that prediction appears to be playing out.
What the Lawsuits Argue
At the heart of both filings is the charge that the congressional maps violate the Wisconsin Constitution’s compactness and contiguity requirements. According to the plaintiffs, the maps undermine communities of interest by dividing counties and municipalities without any legal basis. One filing cites Wisconsin’s 2nd Congressional District as a prime example—stretching from Madison into rural areas in a way that dilutes the urban vote and erases competitive elections.
Wisconsin’s 2025 Congressional District Map, as challenged in Johnson v. WEC. The map shows all eight U.S. House districts and their representatives, with boundaries alleged to violate compactness and contiguity standards by the plaintiffs. Source: Wisconsin Legislative Technology Services Bureau – Johnson v. WEC Congressional Map (2025)
Currently, Republicans hold six of Wisconsin’s eight congressional seats, despite the state being evenly divided politically. Joe Biden won Wisconsin by less than one point in 2020; Donald Trump reclaimed it in 2024. Yet under the current map, only two districts regularly elect Democrats. The lawsuits argue this imbalance is intentional and must be rectified before the 2026 midterms.
House Majority in the Balance
The stakes are enormous. If the Wisconsin Supreme Court sides with plaintiffs and orders new maps ahead of 2026, the political consequences could ripple nationwide. According to FiveThirtyEight’s redistricting tracker, the current congressional map gives Republicans a built-in advantage, even in swing years. But two Republican seats might be lost in a court-ordered redraw, especially if it is based on impartial, nonpartisan standards, potentially leaving Wisconsin's delegation divided 4–4.
Given that Republicans currently control the U.S. House by a slim margin (just 221 to 214 following the 2024 elections), flipping two seats in a single state could help hand Democrats control of the chamber. That would fundamentally alter the legislative prospects of Donald Trump’s second term, especially on issues like immigration, taxes, and federal agency rollbacks.
Why This Could Move Fast
The Wisconsin Supreme Court has not yet agreed to hear the lawsuits, but the path forward may be swift. Legal precedent has already been established. In December 2024, the court ordered a complete redraw of the state legislative maps with just months to go before the 2024 elections. Plaintiffs argue that the same logic applies to the congressional maps. With the liberal court majority now settled, it’s likely the court will take the case directly and decide it on an expedited schedule—perhaps issuing a ruling by late 2025.
Mayer’s Redistricting Philosophy
The new legislative maps, drawn by redistricting expert Kenneth R. Mayer, resulted in several GOP-held Assembly and Senate seats flipping blue. Dr. Kenneth R. Mayer, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin–Madison and one of the nation's foremost redistricting experts, emphasizes three key principles in his approach to drawing fair maps: partisan neutrality, compactness, and respect for communities of interest.
Dr. Kenneth Mayer, UW–Madison redistricting expert. Source:
Badger Talks
His methodologies were formally outlined in a 2018 expert report for the Brennan Center, where he served as a witness in the landmark Whitford v. Gill case. In that report, Mayer argues that a fair map must not systematically advantage one political party over another, especially in a closely divided state like Wisconsin.
When evaluating maps, he uses a range of quantitative metrics such as the efficiency gap, mean-median difference, and partisan symmetry—tools designed to identify intentional gerrymandering.
Opposition Grows Louder
Not surprisingly, Wisconsin Republicans are denouncing the lawsuits as a “partisan power grab.” State GOP Chair Brian Schimming warned in a recent interview that Democrats are “trying to redraw their way to power” after electoral setbacks in rural areas.
Brian Schimming, Chair of the Republican Party of Wisconsin. Credit: Image via @BrianSchimming on X (formerly Twitter)
Conservatives also point to Justice Protasiewicz’s campaign rhetoric as evidence that she should recuse herself from the case, though legal experts say there’s no binding reason for her to do so. National Republicans are also watching. House Speaker Elise Stefanik released a statement saying the lawsuits are an attempt to “overturn the will of Wisconsin voters through judicial activism.”
Wrap Up
If the court rules in favor of new maps, the timing of implementation becomes critical. Candidates will need clarity by spring 2026 to file in the correct districts. There is a limited amount of time left for hearings, decisions, and potentially unique master-drawn maps—right before the 2026 campaign season gets underway.
Progressive groups see this moment as a historic opportunity. “The congressional map has been broken for a decade,” said Mel Barnes of Law Forward, the lead attorney on the case. “This court has a duty to fix it before another election passes with voters denied fair representation.”
The U.S. House could hang in the balance. And once again, Wisconsin—a purple state with outsized political gravity—may prove decisive.