How split-ticket voting shaped the 2024 election and what it means for future political strategy.
What to Know:
- Trump outperformed GOP Senate candidates by 5.4 points in key battlegrounds, reversing the 1.4-point GOP Senate advantage in 2020.
- 7.9% of Trump voters in Arizona and 4.7% in Nevada backed Democratic Senate candidates, flipping key races.
- Trump gained 7.2 points over GOP Senate candidates in South Texas, closing the Latino voter gap by 3.1 points since 2020.
- GOP Senate candidates outperformed Trump by 3.2 points in Oakland County, MI, and 2.5 points in Bucks County, PA, signaling suburban divergence.
- Echelon Insights had a 2-point polling error, correctly predicted Pennsylvania’s Senate race, and was within 1.3 million votes of actual turnout.
The 2024 election cycle has reaffirmed a fascinating trend in American politics: the persistence of split-ticket voting. While partisan divisions continue to dominate political discourse, Echelon Insights' "Split-Ticket Atlas 2024" sheds light on the specifics of voter behavior. The report details how Donald Trump outperformed Republican Senate candidates in key battleground states, while Democratic Senate candidates often ran ahead of their party’s presidential ticket. These disparities offer valuable insights into evolving voter preferences and the future of electoral strategy.
Trump’s Coattails and GOP Down-Ballot Struggles
One of the most striking revelations from Echelon Insights' analysis is that Trump outpaced Republican Senate candidates by an average of 5.4 points in the seven most closely contested states: Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This marks a reversal from 2020, when GOP Senate candidates outperformed Trump by an average of 1.4 points in these battlegrounds.
In Blue Wall states (PA, MI, WI), Trump’s advantage over Senate Republicans was relatively small—ranging from 1.5 to 1.7 points—just enough to secure a razor-thin victory in Pennsylvania (+0.2%) but falling short in Michigan (-0.2%).
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In the Sun Belt battlegrounds (AZ, NV), Trump’s comfortable presidential victory margins were offset by a stronger Democratic Senate performance. The gap was particularly notable in Nevada (4.7 points) and Arizona (7.9 points), ultimately leading to GOP Senate losses in both states.
In red state Senate races, the strong Republican lean helped Senate GOP candidates secure wins despite Democratic overperformance at the state level. Echelon Insights’ report maps the Trump-Senate crossover vote in all states with two-party Senate races in 2022 and 2024. It identifies the largest counties responsible for significant shifts (percentage-wise and in raw vote totals) between Trump’s and GOP Senate candidates’ performance.
The Resurgence of Split-Ticket Voting
For decades, split-ticket voting—where voters select candidates from different parties for different offices—has been on the decline, suggests Statista. However, 2024 demonstrated that it remains a significant factor in key races.
In South Texas and other heavily Latino areas, Trump significantly outperformed past Republican presidential candidates, accelerating the region’s shift toward the GOP. Echelon Insights data shows that in these regions, Trump gained 7.2 percentage points more than GOP Senate candidates, compared to previous cycles where the gap was 4.5 points. The data suggests that Latino voters in these areas have moved rightward faster than expected, closing the gap between Trump’s performance and GOP Senate candidates’, with a net shift of 3.1 points in favor of the GOP since 2020.
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The Trump Democrat and Harris Republican phenomenon was particularly evident in counties where voters chose Trump for president but supported a Democratic Senate candidate (or vice versa). In Maricopa County, AZ, 7.9% of Trump voters split their ticket and backed a Democratic Senate candidate, contributing to the GOP’s loss in the Arizona Senate race. Similarly, in Clark County, NV, 4.7% of Trump voters crossed over, favoring the Democratic Senate nominee.
Source: Echelon Insights
Echelon Insights’ county-level data shows significant shifts in voting patterns, revealing regions where split-ticket voting was most prevalent. Their maps illustrate where Senate Republicans overperformed relative to Trump (shown in blue) and where Trump overperformed relative to Senate Republicans (shown in orange). For example, in Luzerne County, PA, Trump outperformed the GOP Senate candidate by 5.1 points, whereas in Dane County, WI, the Senate GOP candidate outperformed Trump by 3.4 points. The size of the margin shift is visualized by county, providing a detailed geographic breakdown of crossover voting behavior.
Key Factors Driving Split-Ticket Behavior
Echelon’s Polling Accuracy and Methodology
Echelon Insights has solidified its reputation as one of the most accurate pollsters in the nation, with its 2024 predictions outperforming much of the competition. With an average polling error of just 2 points, Echelon’s forecasts were significantly more precise than the industry norm, giving campaigns and analysts a clearer picture of the electoral landscape. This accuracy was particularly evident in Pennsylvania, where Echelon was one of only two firms to correctly predict the outcome of the Senate race—a contest that many other pollsters miscalculated.
Beyond individual races, Echelon’s grasp of the broader electorate proved remarkably sharp. Their national turnout estimate landed within 1.3 million votes of the actual count, a level of precision that underscores their methodological rigor. In an election cycle where polling failures have become common, Echelon’s ability to cut through noise and deliver reliable insights speaks to the strength of their approach.
These results don’t just reflect well on Echelon’s track record—they reinforce the reliability of the Split-Ticket Atlas 2024, which maps key voter behaviors across the country. If the accuracy of their polling is any indication, the trends they identified—Trump’s overperformance in Latino-heavy areas, the GOP’s suburban struggles, and the persistence of split-ticket voting—are not anomalies but signals of deeper shifts in the American electorate.
Wrap Up
The 2024 election reinforced key challenges for both parties. Republicans must balance Trump’s influence, ensuring down-ballot candidates build independent appeal to unify traditional conservatives and Trump loyalists. Democrats need sharper messaging, as Senate wins in Nevada and Arizona showed that localized campaigns outperformed broad national strategies. The Latino vote is shifting, with GOP gains in South Texas highlighting the need for both parties to refine outreach. Suburban voters remain unpredictable, with Senate Democrats performing well in key areas while Republicans gained elsewhere. With voting patterns evolving, both parties must adapt to secure future victories.