There is perhaps no state as solidly purple as the state of Wisconsin. A traditionally blue state for decades, Wisconsin is now possibly the most hotly-contested battleground state in the nation, with the past two presidential elections being decided by around 20,000 votes.
Needless to say, the slightest shift in population demographics in Wisconsin could have a major impact on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. That’s why conservatives should take note of the recent influx in population in Wisconsin’s most reliably blue county, which could end up costing Republicans not just Wisconsin’s ten electoral votes, but the White House itself.
So what’s behind Dane County’s population growth, and how could it determine the outcome of the 2024 election? Bloomberg News recently published an in-depth analysis of Dane County’s population growth. The findings are fascinating, and should concern Republicans looking to flip Wisconsin red in 2024.
Madison, Wisconsin skyline.
The Tech Boom: Epic Systems and Health-Care Sector Growth
One major contributor to Dane County's population growth, according to the Bloomberg report, is the flourishing tech industry, particularly with the presence of companies like Epic Systems in the health-care sector. The county has become a magnet for professionals seeking opportunities in this dynamic field. As Epic Systems continues to expand, attracting skilled workers and fostering innovation, it has undoubtedly played a pivotal role in drawing new residents to the area.
Furthermore, the average age of Epic Systems’ workforce is 26, many of whom are recent college graduates. The steady growth of Epic Systems from 3,000 employees in 2015 to 12,000 today is no doubt expanding the Democrats stronghold on the county. And in a state where the most recent presidential elections have been decided by around 20,000 votes, this growth could tip the scales for Biden in 2024.
Political Influence on Migration: A Biden-Won County Magnet
Analyzing tax-filing data, Bloomberg uncovered a fascinating correlation between political affiliations and migration patterns. Between 2020 and 2021, Dane County experienced an influx of individuals predominantly from counties won by President Biden in the 2020 election. The numbers reveal a trend where the county's growth is closely tied to the political landscape, with twice as many newcomers arriving from Biden-won counties compared to those won by Trump.
Tracking Migration Patterns: Insights from Placer.ai
Delving even deeper into the migration dynamics, a separate analysis conducted by Placer.ai, utilizing mobile phone data, sheds light on the origins of Dane County's new residents. Over the last three years, metropolitan Chicago, the Minneapolis area, and Los Angeles County emerged as the primary sources of out-of-state migrants. Interestingly, these regions are known for their Democratic-leaning populations, adding another layer to the correlation between political affiliations and migration to Dane County.
Dane County's population growth is a multifaceted phenomenon driven by a combination of factors, from the expansion of tech giants like Epic Systems to the influence of political affiliations on migration patterns. As the county continues to evolve, it remains a fascinating case study in the interplay between economic opportunities, political landscapes, and demographic shifts. The influx of new residents not only shapes the county's future, but could determine the future of the entire nation for the next four years.