Trump’s sweeping tax legislation delivers wins for working Americans but exposes sharp divisions over Social Security, messaging strategy, and the GOP’s future.
What to Know
- The bill makes the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent and adds relief for tips, overtime, and middle-income seniors
- It passed the House with Republican backing and minimal Democratic support, defying expectations of gridlock
- Support centers on tax breaks for service workers and job preservation across key sectors
- Base backlash has grown over the failure to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits
- Republican leadership sees a win, but polling reveals a party still struggling to unify around a shared fiscal message
Controversial and substantial, the Big Beautiful Bill is certainly a hefty piece of legislation. Designed to anchor Trump’s second-term economic agenda, the legislation combines worker-focused tax relief, permanent extensions of the 2017 tax cuts, and pro-family incentives with border enforcement and savings initiatives.
After clearing the House, the bill was hailed by President Trump as the most significant legislative victory of his administration. Supporters see it as a long-awaited economic reset that rewards labor, restores confidence, and protects the American working class. However, the bill's failure to address Social Security has stirred up long-standing disagreements within the fractured GOP base. The following analysis is based on multi-week EyesOver AI sentiment tracking, compiled by Campaign Now’s research team as the foundation for this report.
According to sentiment data and voter analysis from EyesOver, the divide is real, and it’s growing. The following Campaign Now analysis is based on multi-week EyesOver sentiment snapshots leading up to the Ohio GOP Primary.
Tax Relief Where It’s Felt
The "Big Beautiful Bill," aka H.R.1 - One Big Beautiful Bill Act proposes to eliminate federal income tax on tips and overtime pay, offer a $4,000 deduction for middle-income seniors, introduce "Trump Savings Accounts" for newborns, and increase salaries for ICE and Border Patrol agents, aiming to appeal to working-class voters through economic reform and border security.
Screenshot from the U.S. House Ways & Means Committee document on “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” chaired by Rep. Jason Smith. This breakdown outlines tax and economic provisions central to the GOP’s 2025 legislative strategy. Source: waysandmeans.house.gov
The immediate reaction among service industry workers, small business owners, and wage earners has been positive. Support for the tip and overtime provisions is especially strong, with favorable sentiment clustering in battleground states like Nevada, Florida, and Ohio.1 For hourly workers who often felt ignored by traditional tax policy, these targeted cuts are seen not just as practical support but as recognition.
According to internal estimates cited by House Republicans, the bill could help preserve or create over 3 million jobs across sectors like manufacturing, healthcare, food service, and retail. The polling confirms alignment: many voters perceive the bill’s intent as job-positive, especially among independent and low-income Republicans.2
A Gap That’s Hard to Ignore
While the bill succeeds in delivering for some, it has failed to meet expectations on one of Trump’s most frequently repeated promises: full tax relief for Social Security recipients. Instead of a comprehensive tax elimination, the bill offers a modest $4,000 deduction for qualifying seniors, which is a measure that critics within the GOP have called insufficient, performative, or outright dismissive.
Image generated by DALL-E
This decision has become the top source of negative sentiment surrounding the legislation. According to EyesOver, 60% to 65% of reactions to the bill from Republican voters trend negative, with the majority citing disappointment over Social Security.3 Many view the issue as a litmus test. In online forums, call-in shows, and local organizing circles, GOP voters have described the omission as a betrayal of Trump’s earlier messaging and as a missed opportunity to draw a clear contrast with Democrats.
Negative feedback was received from key demographics: older voters and fiscal populists. In states like Pennsylvania and Arizona, polling shows a drop in intensity of support following the bill’s passage, specifically among seniors who expected stronger entitlement reform.4
Leadership Wins, Base Fractures
Despite backlash from the base, Republican leadership views the bill’s passage as a political win. Speaker Mike Johnson has seen his effectiveness rating climb sharply following the legislation’s passage through the House.5 He was credited with avoiding legislative gridlock and helping Trump notch a major policy victory. Senator John Thune also saw a notable jump in support among rank-and-file Republicans for his role in moving the tax package forward.6
Senator John Thune, whose support for the Big Beautiful Bill earned him increased favorability among GOP voters. Official U.S. Senate photo, public domain.
However, the party's internal unity remains precarious. Moderate Republicans from high-tax states, often referred to as "SALT moderates," have been heavily criticized for allegedly diluting the bill’s original ambition. These lawmakers, seeking to preserve property and state tax deductions, are seen by some conservatives as obstacles to broader reform. Their influence, while necessary for passage, has become a lightning rod for intra-party frustration.
The perception that the bill was watered down in backroom negotiations has eroded trust. According to EyesOver’s sentiment breakdowns, even voters who favor the bill’s worker-focused elements express concern that too many compromises were made to accommodate moderates and protect legacy interests.7
Was it a Messaging Failure or a Missed Opportunity?
The response to the bill also reveals a communications failure. While Trump and allies championed the tip and overtime provisions on social media and in speeches, messaging around the Social Security gap has been minimal. This vacuum allowed critics to define the narrative, framing the bill as incomplete or deceptive.8 The phrase “No Tax on Social Security” appeared frequently in pre-bill rhetoric but was largely absent from the post-bill push.
The GOP’s inability to preemptively address the Social Security shortfall has left base voters vulnerable to misinformation and internal confusion. In sentiment tracking across multiple platforms, many respondents indicated that they had been unaware the bill excluded full Social Security relief until critics pointed it out after passage.9
EyesOver data indicates that GOP leaders should broaden their messaging to link the bill with other successes, such as job reshoring, deregulation, and economic resilience. Messaging strategists suggest a sharper focus going forward. Every House Democrat voted against the bill, demonstrating Democratic opposition to worker tax relief. The legislation should be reframed as a battle for working Americans, not a tax break for the elite.
A Party Split Between Policy and Populism
Beyond its policy content, the Big Beautiful Bill lays bare a deeper identity crisis in the GOP. On paper, it is a blend of Reagan-era tax cuts and Trump-era populist flourishes. But in practice, those two impulses are proving difficult to reconcile. For fiscal conservatives, the bill raises concerns about deficits and missed reform. For populists, it lacks the boldness they associate with Trump’s political brand.
This fracture is visible in EyesOver’s long-range trendlines. Support for the bill among traditional Republican voters holds steady, while approval among younger, working-class, and lower-income voters wavers depending on how the Social Security issue is framed.10 The reaction is less about content than cohesion—voters are no longer satisfied with partial victories.
Even among those who favor the bill, there is a strong sense that the GOP must clarify its economic identity. Is the party committed to worker-first policies? Or is it still beholden to legacy tax priorities that fail to resonate with its evolving base?
Wrap Up
The Big Beautiful Bill was designed to be a milestone for Trump’s second term—a show of action, delivery, and economic vision. In some respects, it succeeds. The House passed it. Worker relief was prioritized. New messaging touchpoints were created for a general election cycle already underway.
But the reaction from the Republican base tells a more complicated story. According to EyesOver polling and feedback modeling, dissatisfaction with the handling of Social Security has become a central grievance. Whether strategic or accidental, the silence surrounding this issue created space for backlash, shifting the tone of the conversation.
The GOP’s challenge now is not simply to pass legislation. It is to translate those wins into durable enthusiasm and trust. As Trump eyes a second-term legacy and the party looks to 2026, the question remains whether this bill will unify or fracture an already strained coalition.
Sources
- EyesOver, weekly_snapshot_250522.pdf
- EyesOver, weekly_snapshot_250522.pdf
- EyesOver, weekly_snapshot_250522.pdf
- EyesOver, weekly_snapshot_250514.pdf
- EyesOver, weekly_snapshot_250522.pdf
- EyesOver, weekly_snapshot_250514.pdf
- EyesOver, weekly_snapshot_250522.pdf
- EyesOver, weekly_snapshot_250410.pdf
- EyesOver, weekly_snapshot_250522.pdf
- EyesOver, weekly_snapshot_250507.pdf
