As September goes on, Harris's lead wanes, indicating a dynamic and competitive race.
What to Know:
-
As of September 15, 2024, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 2.6 points, with Harris at 48.1% and Trump at 45.4%.
-
Recent polls show Harris with leads up to 6 points in some surveys, while Trump gains in others, reflecting race volatility.
-
Harris’s favorability is almost tied with her unfavorable rating (46.5% vs. 46.8%), whereas Trump’s favorability is 43.0% with a 52.6% unfavorable rating.
-
Democrats have a slight edge in congressional polls, leading by 1% to 4% over Republicans, showing a tight race.
-
Economic conditions, campaign messaging, and upcoming debates are key factors influencing polling trends.
As the 2024 presidential election season progresses, recent polling data reveals a notable shift in the race dynamics. Kamala Harris, who has been leading in national polls, finds her advantage narrowing as we head into the second week of September. This article provides an in-depth look at the current state of the race using information gathered from FiveThirtyEight and what it means for both candidates.
Current Polling Overview
As of September 15, 2024, Kamala Harris holds a 2.6 percentage point lead over Donald Trump in the national presidential polling average. Harris’s current standing is at 48.1%, while Trump trails at 45.4%. This narrow margin indicates a tight race, with the lead falling within the margin of error, suggesting that the contest remains highly competitive.
Recent polls from September 11–13 show a mixed but generally favorable trend for Harris. Polling firms such as Data for Progress and YouGov/Yahoo News report Harris leading by 4 percentage points. Ipsos/ABC News also shows Harris maintaining a solid lead of up to 6 points in some surveys. These figures reflect a momentary boost for Harris, but the fluctuating numbers underscore the volatility and fluidity of the race.
Favorability Ratings
Favorability ratings, which can significantly impact a candidate's electoral chances, present a more nuanced picture. For Kamala Harris, the favorability polling averages on September 15, 2024, reveal a mixed sentiment among voters. Harris's favorability stands at 46.5%, nearly evenly split with her unfavorable rating of 46.8%. This near-even split highlights the challenge Harris faces in consolidating her support as she contends with persistent skepticism among voters.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, faces a more pronounced disparity in favorability. His current favorability rating is 43.0%, compared to a 52.6% unfavorable rating. This gap reflects significant disapproval, which could pose a challenge for Trump as he seeks to close the gap in the presidential race.
Recent Poll Results From Five Thirty-Eight
Sept. 11-13, 2024:
-
Data for Progress: Harris 50%, Trump 46% — Harris +4
-
YouGov/Yahoo News: Harris 49%, Trump 45% — Harris +4
-
TIPP Insights: Harris 45%, Trump 41% — Harris +4
Sept. 8-10, 2024:
-
Ipsos/ABC News: Harris 51%, Trump 46% — Harris +5
-
AtlasIntel: Harris 47%, Trump 51% — Trump +4
Sept. 6-8, 2024:
-
Morning Consult: Harris 50%, Trump 45% — Harris +5
-
Big Village: Harris 47%, Trump 52% — Trump +5
These variations in poll results demonstrate the volatility of the race, with Harris showing stronger leads in some polls and Trump gaining ground in others. The divergence in results highlights the importance of interpreting polling data with caution and considering the broader trends over time.
Generic Congressional Ballot Polling
Generic ballot surveys for Congress, in addition to the presidential contest, provide information about wider electoral dynamics. As of mid-September, Democrats are generally leading by small margins. Recent polls show a slight advantage for Democrats, with figures ranging from a 1% to a 4% lead over Republicans.
Recent Generic Ballot Polls:
|
These results suggest that while Democrats maintain a slight edge, the competition remains tight, reflecting a highly competitive congressional landscape.
Factors Influencing Polling Trends
Several factors are contributing to the current polling dynamics:
-
Economic Conditions: Economic performance and public perception of economic management often influence favorability ratings. Recent economic challenges or improvements can impact voter sentiment and shift poll numbers.
-
Campaign Messaging: Both candidates’ campaign strategies and messaging play a crucial role in shaping voter opinions. Harris and Trump’s ability to address key issues and resonate with voters will affect their standing in the polls.
-
Debates and Media Coverage: Upcoming debates and media coverage will likely impact voter perceptions. Effective debate performances and favorable media portrayals can boost a candidate’s favorability and polling numbers.
Wrap Up
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains highly competitive. Harris's lead, though significant, is narrowing, and Trump’s favorability ratings indicate room for improvement. The ongoing fluctuations in polling data underscore the unpredictability of the race and the importance of continued voter engagement and campaign strategies.
Voters and analysts alike should keep an eye on these trends as the election season unfolds, recognizing that polling snapshots provide a glimpse into a dynamic and evolving electoral landscape.
For the latest updates on polling and election trends, visit FiveThirtyEight's election page.
