In a shocking new poll which has Democrats utterly panicked, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in five out of six swing states that will ultimately decide the presidential election, in some cases by double digits.
The New York Times/Siena College poll, released on November 5, 2023, found that Trump leads Biden by an average of 3 percentage points in these five states. The largest margin of victory for Trump is in Nevada, where he leads by 11 percentage points. The smallest margin of victory for Trump is in Pennsylvania, where he leads by 3 percentage points.
Biden only manages to salvage one swing state, according to the poll, the state of Wisconsin. But his margin is slim, at only 2 points, which is just narrowly outside of the margin of error.
While we are still a year out from the 2024 general election, the polling identifies troubling trends for President Biden when it comes to his rating on the economy, national security and ongoing lobal conflicts. The New York Times/ Siena poll also indicates that Trump may be over-performing in key Democrat voting blocs, namely among Blacks, Hispanics and young voters
Here are the key takeaways, and why this new polling has Democrats panicked one year out from Election Day.
Trump ahead in five out of six battleground states
Here is a more detailed look at the poll results in each state:
- Arizona: Trump leads Biden by 49% to 44%. In 2020 Biden edged out a win in Arizona by 0.3 percentage points.
- Georgia: Trump leads Biden by 49% to 43%. This is a far wider margin of victory than in 2020, when Biden narrowly won Georgia by 0.5 percentage points.
- Michigan: Trump leads Biden by 48% to 43%. This is a reversal from the 2020 election, when Biden won Michigan by 2.8 percentage points.
- Nevada: Trump leads Biden by 52% to 41%, a stunning 11 point lead. Biden won Nevada by 2.4 percentage points.
- Pennsylvania: Trump leads Biden by 48% to 45%. This is a narrower margin of victory than in 2020, when Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2 percentage points.
The only state where Biden leads Trump is Wisconsin, but only by two points. The Dairy State has been extremely close in the last two presidential elections, with victories only coming in the form of a 20,000 vote margin.
Trump overperforms in key Democrat voter blocs
The New York Times/ Siena poll also indicates that Biden is underperforming with key Democrat voting blocs. In the two youngest voter blocs, 18 - 29 and 30 - 44, Biden only leads by one percentage point in the six all-important battleground states. In fact, only 31% of voters aged 18 - 29 strongly or somewhat approve of Biden’s performance as president, while only 36% of voters approve of his performance.
But perhaps more worrisome for Democrats is the tepid support for Biden with Black and Hispanic voters in the six battleground states. Among Black voters, Biden only achieves 71% support, a far cry from the 90% margins enjoyed by Democrats among the Black electorate for decades.
Among Hispanic voters, Biden only leads by 8 points according to the polling at 50% to 42%. Underperforming in this segment, the fastest growing in the country, could ultimately cost President Biden a second term.
Trump wins on the issues
Former President Donald Trump trounced President Joe Biden on nearly every key issue in the New York Times/ Siena poll
On the economy, 59% of voters said they trust Trump to do a better job, compared to just 37% for Biden. Trump also led Biden on national security by 12 percentage points (53% to 41%), and by 11 points on his handling of the Israeli-Hamas war.
Biden did lead on a few issues, including abortion (49% to 40%). And as we’ve seen, the abortion issue post-Roe has been nothing short of a disaster for Republicans in recent elections.
The poll's findings are certainly a sign that Biden faces an uphill battle in his bid for re-election in 2024. Trump remains extremely popular among Republican voters, and he has a strong lead in a number of key battleground states if this polling is correct. Despite his legal woes and general unpopularity, Trump continues to be a major force the Democrats will have to hurdle to retain the White House.
