An extensive examination of the factors, attitudes, and voting patterns influencing the 2024 election.
What to know:
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66% of voters are "extremely motivated" to vote in the 2024 election, according to a Monmouth University poll from August 8-12, 2024.
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57% of voters are confident in Kamala Harris’s stamina, a significant increase from 32% for Joe Biden earlier this year; Donald Trump’s confidence rating is 47%.
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Kamala Harris's favorability among voters aged 18-34 has surged from 20% to 52%, driven by her focus on climate change, student debt, and social justice, as well as better social media engagement.
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51% of newly registered Latino voters support Harris, while 35% support Trump; Harris leads Trump 47% to 45% among Latino voters who skipped the 2020 election, with 56% of these voters now certain to vote in 2024.
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Key states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada have shifted from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up," indicating a tighter race as the election approaches.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most contested in recent history, with significant shifts in public opinion and key demographic trends. Recent polls and studies have provided a detailed snapshot of voter sentiment and potential impacts on the race between incumbent President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
National Polls: Key Findings
A recent Monmouth University poll conducted from August 8th to 12th, 2024, offers insights into voter motivation and confidence levels regarding the presidential candidates.
This poll surveyed 801 voters nationwide and found that 66% of respondents are "extremely motivated" to vote in the upcoming election. This high level of voter engagement is a positive sign for both candidates as they prepare for the final stretch of the campaign.
In terms of confidence in the candidates' abilities, the poll reveals a notable shift. Currently, 57% of voters express confidence in Kamala Harris’s mental and physical stamina, a marked improvement over the 32% who felt the same about Joe Biden earlier in the year. Donald Trump’s confidence rating stands at around 47%, indicating a competitive but slightly less favorable view among voters.
Unpacking the Surge in Popularity Among Young VotersKamala Harris, once considered one of the most unpopular Vice Presidents in recent history, has seen a dramatic turnaround in her approval ratings. This shift is largely driven by a significant increase in favorability among voters aged 18-34, whose positive views of Harris have surged from just 20% to 52%. What’s behind this dramatic shift, and how is Harris addressing the concerns and aspirations of this crucial demographic? Kamala Harris's surge in popularity among voters aged 18-34 may be attributable to her sudden increased focus on issues that resonate with this demographic:
Her improved communication strategies, including a stronger presence on social media platforms popular with younger audiences, have also played a key role. |
When it comes to the candidates' ability to affect change, the poll presents a mixed picture. 33% of voters are "very confident" in Trump’s ability to bring about significant changes, while 49% are "not at all confident." In comparison, 24% of respondents feel "very confident" in Harris’s capacity to effect change, with 46% lacking confidence in her abilities. These figures reflect ongoing skepticism among voters about the effectiveness of both candidates in addressing key national issues.
The poll also evaluated voters' perceptions of each candidate's familiarity with common people. Donald Trump is perceived to have a "great deal" of understanding by 30% of respondents, while 46% believe he has no understanding of everyday concerns.
Kamala Harris’s understanding is viewed more favorably by 28% of voters, but 39% still think she lacks insight into the average person’s life.
Latino Voter Sentiment: A Potential Game Changer
Equis Research, in collaboration with Searchlight Research, has provided valuable data on Latino voters, a crucial demographic in the 2024 election. Polling conducted between May 16th and June 6th, 2024, and again from July 22nd to August 4th, 2024, across seven battleground states, highlights a potential shift in Latino voter sentiment.
Support for Kamala Harris among newly registered Latino voters stands at 51%, compared to 35% for Donald Trump. This is a significant turnaround, particularly among Latino voters who did not participate in the 2020 election.
The percentage of these voters who are now certain to cast their ballot in 2024 has increased by 10 points, reaching 56%. Moreover, Harris currently leads Trump 47% to 45% among registered Latino voters who skipped the 2020 election, a notable reversal from June’s data where Biden trailed Trump by 20 points in this demographic.
State-Specific Observations and Trends
The Cook Political Report has adjusted its ratings for several key states. Arizona and Nevada, both narrowly won by Biden in 2020, are expected to be highly competitive in the upcoming election. Harris will need to secure a level of Latino support similar to Biden's 2020 performance to maintain a strong position in these states.
In Wisconsin, Harris’s support among Latino voters appears consistent with Biden’s 2020 figures, suggesting stability in this crucial battleground state.
The Cook Political Report’s shift from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up" in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada indicates a tightening race. This adjustment reflects growing uncertainty and the increasing competitiveness of the electoral landscape as the November election approaches.
