Understanding the Effectiveness of Crime-Focused Immigration Framing

How the GOP’s law-and-order narrative on immigration flipped the map in California, Arizona, and beyond.

What to Know

• House Democrats averaged just 24–25% sentiment on border security in CA, AZ, FL, and TX as of late April.
• GOP messaging emphasizing MS-13, gang violence, and public safety consistently outperformed Democratic legal-process framing.
• In Arizona, Democratic immigration sentiment remained under 30% for weeks, hitting just 33% by mid-May.
• Democrats who backed deportees like Kilmar Abrego Garcia saw net drops in approval, while GOP leaders gained support.
• Speaker Mike Johnson led all House GOP leaders in net support gain due to his alignment with Trump’s crime-and-deportation platform.

In swing states and Hispanic-heavy regions, the GOP has mastered the art of messaging immigration not as a matter of bureaucracy, but as a battle for public safety. The Republican emphasis on MS-13, violent crime, and community protection resonates far more deeply than the Democratic focus on process, due process, and appeals. The figures are irrefutable, and their impact may have reshaped the political landscape.

How Crime Framing Overpowered Due Process

The Republican Party successfully framed immigration as a threat and deportation as a solution by highlighting violent crimes committed by migrant gang members, particularly MS-13. This strategy allowed them to present themselves as the only political force capable of restoring order. 

Democrats tried to counter with legal nuance, emphasizing court rulings, discretionary review, and humanitarian exceptions. But those appeals didn’t move voters. The Republican Party's "results over rights" strategy resonated with voters, in contrast to their past approaches that often failed.

In Arizona, sentiment for House Democrats on immigration sat at just 25% by mid-April and only climbed to 33% by mid-May.¹ Across CA, AZ, FL, and TX, Democrats averaged just 24–25% on border issues during this same period.² Despite media pushback against Trump’s deportation practices, GOP messaging about “protecting American families” carried the day.

Democrats’ Humanitarian Appeals Fall Flat

The case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia was illustrative. When prominent Democrats, including Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Rep. Robert Garcia, rallied around Garcia’s deportation appeal, Republicans turned the case into a referendum on safety vs. softness. Media narratives quickly followed suit. Rather than highlighting the injustice of deporting a settled migrant, public sentiment focused on whether Democrats were prioritizing migrants over American safety.³

Polling and sentiment data confirmed the backlash. Democratic figures involved in high-profile defense of deportees saw net losses in support. Conversely, the Republican stance, emphasizing the removal of “bad guys,” successfully captured both media attention and public support.

Latino Voters Want Order, Not Amnesty: Why Democrats Misread the Room

Democrats long assumed Latino voters would consistently support their coalition, based on common ground regarding immigration, equality, and inclusion. But that narrative has fractured. 

A late 2022 Atlantic report indicated that a significant number of Latino voters, particularly those from working-class, religious, or security-focused backgrounds, no longer perceive the Democratic Party as representing their interests. Instead, they see a party that speaks in abstractions while ignoring the real fears of violence, disorder, and economic instability that hit close to home.

Table: Top Latin American Sources of 2025 Immigration Surge

In border communities and swing districts, the Republican promise of safety and enforcement resonates with a clarity that legal process arguments simply can’t match. Immigrants from tumultuous nations such as Venezuela, El Salvador, or Cuba sought structure, safety, and opportunity in the United States, not perpetual legal battles.

Can Democrats Fight Safety With Credibility?

After the 2024 defeat, Democrats are confronting more than a messaging problem. They are facing a collapse in trust. Just 27 percent of registered voters currently view the Democratic Party favorably, according to polling cited by Boston Review. This is the lowest level in over three decades. Many voters no longer see the party as connected to their daily fears or priorities.

The Washington Post collected reflections from Democratic leaders across the spectrum, and one theme came through clearly: voters are tired of hearing about abstract ideals while real-life concerns go unanswered. While Republicans talk about protecting families and restoring order, Democrats often speak in the language of policy memos and procedural fairness. That disconnect has become costly.

To rebuild credibility, Democrats must stop acting like analysts and start acting like guardians. That means investing in fast, visible public safety strategies. They need to support effective community policing, get tough on gang violence, and make clear that legal immigration is a tool for stability, not disorder. Most of all, they need to speak in plain terms about protection and control.

Mike Johnson’s Rise as the Law-and-Order Standard-Bearer

House Speaker Mike Johnson emerged as a key figure in this messaging war. By aligning tightly with Trump’s immigration posture and pushing legislation focused on deportation and tax relief, Johnson sustained the highest net gains among House GOP leaders. He was consistently ranked as having “higher gains than losses” in voter sentiment throughout April and May.³ 

Mike Johnson, law-and-order hype man. Screenshot via speaker.gov

By championing legislation that prioritized mass deportation, defunded sanctuary cities, and expanded ICE authority, he gave substance to the GOP’s talking points, establishing himself as a policy engine rather than merely a megaphone. At a time when Republicans were trying to prove they could both message and govern, Johnson made the case that they could.

But it was his economic messaging that cemented his crossover appeal. Johnson's championing of the “No Tax on Tips” initiative wasn't just a throwaway slogan. It directly targeted service industry workers such as waiters, bartenders, and gig economy earners. Many of these individuals had felt abandoned by the Democratic Party’s increasingly elite tone. 

Wrap Up

Democrats walked into a narrative war armed with process, while Republicans came armed with urgency. Legal nuance, court appeals, and procedural defenses simply couldn’t compete with visceral promises of safety, order, and control. Voters didn't want a civics lesson; they wanted to feel safe. The GOP clearly and convincingly provided that sense of security.

Even in traditionally blue, Hispanic-heavy regions, this mismatch played out in sharp relief. These voters weren’t uniformly pro-immigration in the way Democrats assumed. Many supported legal immigration but also demanded stronger enforcement and tougher stances on crime and border chaos. Democrats failed to recognize this complexity, and Republicans filled that emotional and rhetorical vacuum with ease.

If Democrats want to stay in the conversation, they need to stop narrating from the sidelines. They must speak directly to voter anxieties, blend compassion with control, and build a values-based enforcement platform that doesn’t flinch at the word “safety.” Because immigration isn’t just a policy debate anymore. It’s a battleground of story and emotion. And right now, Republicans are the only ones telling a story voters want to hear.

Sources

1. EyesOver, Immigration Sentiment in Arizona, May 14, 2024
2. EyesOver, Regional Border Security Polling, April 30, 2024
3. EyesOver, Kilmar Abrego Garcia Sentiment Report, April 16, 2024