Minority Male Voters Are Slipping from the Democratic Base

Catalist’s latest analysis offers crucial insights into the 2024 Democratic voter shift, highlighting implications for upcoming elections in 2026 and beyond.

What to Know:

• Drops in support for Democrats were significant among young voters, men, and voters of color, particularly Latino and Black men.
• Turnout held strong overall, but lower participation in blue cities hurt Harris more than Trump.
• The gender gap widened because men moved toward Republicans, not because women abandoned Democrats.
• Support among “irregular voters” and first-time registrants dropped sharply, signaling enthusiasm fatigue.
• Structural threats to the Democratic coalition stem from long-term shifts, including education divides, urban-rural polarization, and declining party loyalty.

Democrats had hoped to retain the coalition that propelled Joe Biden to power in 2020, following one of the most tumultuous election cycles in modern American history, marked by a presidential candidate switch, an assassination attempt, and post-pandemic fatigue. They didn’t. Progressive data firm Catalist's comprehensive analysis reveals that the Democratic Party's 2024 losses were not merely superficial but rather stemmed from profound and escalating demographic shifts.

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz held onto many of Biden’s 2020 voters, especially among consistent voters and women. But they hemorrhaged support in key, intersecting groups: young men, Latino and Black voters, and irregular or first-time voters. While Donald Trump didn't radically grow his base, he didn’t have to. Democrats simply didn’t hold theirs together.
Who Is Catalist, and Why Their Data Matters

Catalist is no ordinary polling firm. Since 2006, this progressive data powerhouse has built the most comprehensive voter-file-based analytics system in U.S. politics. Drawing on individual-level vote history for 98% of voters, precinct data covering 97% of the electorate, and proprietary modeling, Catalist offers one of the most granular reads of how Americans vote and, also importantly, why. 

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• Screenshot of “What Happened in 2024” report by Catalist, accessed via https://catalist.us . 
• Their “What Happened” reports after each major election offer postmortem insights that campaigns, academics, and media outlets rely on to decode voter behavior. The 2024 edition, given the unprecedented nature of the race, is particularly urgent for Democrats searching for answers.
• The Democratic coalition's unraveling in the 2024 presidential election wasn't an abrupt event. Instead, it was the culmination of more than a decade of steady, quiet erosion. Kamala Harris’s three-point drop from Biden’s 2020 showing obscures the reality that some of the party’s most important voter blocs are no longer solidly Democratic. Catalist data indicates the Democratic Party's 2024 losses stemmed from both turnout and persuasion issues. These declines were particularly pronounced within demographic groups traditionally considered core to the modern Democratic advantage.
• Support Collapsed Among Young Men of Color
• The sharpest declines came among Latino voters, where Democratic support dropped by nine points nationwide. Among young Latino men, the fall was even more severe: support plummeted from 63% in 2020 to just 47% in 2024. Harris also lost ten points among young Black men, who had backed Biden at 85% but showed only 75% support for her. Voter declines across age, gender, race, and turnout regularity were compounded. Young, male, irregular voters of color most often drifted from the Democratic column.¹
• Even among white voters, there was slippage. Support from white men with college degrees declined, and Harris also underperformed with white voters more generally, despite their consistent turnout rates. A significant 6-point decline in Democratic support among men since 2020 has led to the widest gender gap in modern political history. This shift is not due to an increase in women supporting Democrats but rather a decisive move away from the party by men.²
• Lopsided Turnout, Despite High Voter Engagement
• Turnout in 2024 reached 64% nationally and exceeded 70% in battleground states, nearly matching the record-setting participation levels of 2020.³ But where that turnout came from proved decisive. Republican-leaning precincts held firm or even improved their participation, while traditionally Catalist's analysis of the 2024 election reveals a critical shift: rural turnout in swing states increased while urban turnout declined. This reversal in engagement eroded the structural advantage Democrats have held in urban cores since the Obama era.
• This disparity wasn’t confined to a single racial group. While white and Latino turnout increased in the battlegrounds, turnout among Black voters dropped by nearly 6 points nationwide, and AAPI turnout dropped by 7. 2024 results suffered as 2020 first-time Democratic voters didn't return. Continuous outreach and policy alignment are needed to retain loyalty.
• The New Voter Pipeline Broke
• One of the most alarming findings in the Catalist report is the dramatic decline in first-time voter registration. Between 2020 and 2024, new registrations dropped from 40 million to 34 million. Just as critical, the Democratic share of those new registrations collapsed. In party-registration states, Democrats went from capturing 36% of new registrants in 2020 to only 29% in 2024.⁴ Republicans gained slightly, but the biggest shift was toward “no party affiliation,” which seems to be a sign that the Democratic brand is failing to inspire enthusiasm among the rising generation.
• This matters deeply, because Democrats have long depended on winning new voters to sustain their coalition. First-time registrants tend to be younger, more diverse, and more urban. But they also tend to be irregular and distrustful of traditional party structures. Without them, the Democratic electoral math doesn’t hold.
• Trump’s Gains Among Disaffected Democrats
• Harris maintained support among consistent voters, especially older women and white suburban moderates. However, Trump gained ground with the very voters Democrats had always aimed to mobilize. Young men of color, especially those without college degrees and those outside major metro areas, tilted toward the GOP in ways that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. 
• These voters are often not lifelong conservatives; instead, they are ideologically flexible, economically challenged, and open to cultural persuasion.⁵ Trump’s messaging, amplified by platforms that cater to grievance and anti-establishment rhetoric, found a foothold. Harris’s campaign, despite offering a more popular economic agenda in some polls, failed to break through the noise.
• The election outcome stemmed not merely from low turnout but from a disintegration of the coalition. Democrats didn’t lose because their base stayed home; they lost because parts of their base switched sides. Among irregular voters who missed at least one of the last four general elections, support dropped five points. Among young Latino men who also fall into the “irregular” category, Harris lost 17 points compared to Biden.⁶ These aren’t just statistics. They’re structural failures.
• Rebuilding Will Take More Than a Midterm Strategy
• The idea that changing demographics will naturally produce a Democratic majority has become dangerously outdated. As Catalist makes clear, the party is bleeding support from constituencies that once seemed unshakable, not because those voters became conservative, but because they stopped believing Democrats speak to their lives.
• Rebuilding that trust will require more than polling-tested messaging. It means reviving deep, culturally competent outreach in cities that felt overlooked in 2024. It means investing early in voter registration that’s not just about forms but about identity and belonging. And it means confronting the masculinity gap that Republicans have filled with right-wing populism, while Democrats have largely ignored it. Young men aren’t unreachable—but they are currently unspoken to.
• Wrap Up
• The party also needs to reestablish a presence in working-class spaces where politics now arrives primarily through memes, influencers, and YouTube rabbit holes. For many of the voters, Democrats faced a 2024 defeat not due to policy disagreement but from a perception of indifference towards their participation. The Democratic coalition, once described as a rising tide, is now a leaky boat. And patching it will take far more than hoping the wind changes direction.
• The Catalist report doesn’t offer a silver bullet. What it provides is a mirror. Democrats can either keep trying to win elections with the coalition they used to have or build a new one, grounded in the reality of who their voters are now. What occurred in 2024 is not merely an isolated incident; it represents a recurring pattern that will persist unless changes are implemented.
• Sources
• 1. Catalist, 2024
• Catalist, 2024
• Catalist, 2024
• Catalist, 2024
• Catalist, 2024
• Catalist, 2024
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