Republican Governors Lead in Popularity as 2026 Midterms Approach

New national polling data shows Republican governors are viewed more positively than Democratic leaders, hinting at 2026 election opportunities and challenges.

What to Know:

• Georgia Governor Brian Kemp leads with a 46% “Very Strong” sentiment score, signaling GOP strength in battleground states.
• Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin follows closely at 45%, maintaining broad appeal across suburban and rural voter blocs.
• New York’s Kathy Hochul and California’s Gavin Newsom each score below 35% , placing them in the “Critical” sentiment tier.
• Newsom’s low score is partly driven by backlash to immigration spending and public frustration over healthcare resource management.
• EyesOver data reveals a persistent Democratic sentiment gap, particularly within states boasting substantial Hispanic populations, concerning issues such as border security and public safety.

As the political landscape shifts heading into the 2026 midterm cycle, national voter sentiment toward state governors offers an unusually clear early window into the themes, anxieties, and personalities now shaping the electorate’s mood. Governors often serve as proxies for their parties' broader identities, trusted more than Congress while still connected to national brands. That makes their rising or falling sentiment a kind of political barometer, one that’s especially valuable in this polarized climate. 

The gubernatorial process, in short. Image generated by DALL-E

According to newly released data from EyesOver’s May 14 Snapshot, GOP Governors Brian Kemp (GA) and Glenn Youngkin (VA) enjoy high national sentiment, contrasting with vulnerable Democratic counterparts Kathy Hochul (NY) and Gavin Newsom (CA). The following analysis is based on multi-week EyesOver AI sentiment tracking, compiled by Campaign Now’s research team as the foundation for this report.

Strong Approval in Strategic States for GOP Governors

Governor Brian Kemp leads the pack with a national sentiment score of 46%, placing him in the “Very Strong” tier. The EyesOver data does not isolate specific policies driving Kemp’s approval, but his overall positioning suggests steady support from Georgia voters who continue to reward his mix of economic pragmatism and conservative governance.¹ His handling of inflation-driven cost-of-living concerns and a relatively quiet but consistent stance on border security appear to align with national GOP messaging.

Office of U.S. Senator David Perdue, via Flickr. CC BY 2.0. Source: flickr

Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin scores just one point below Kemp at 45%, also placing him in the “Very Strong” tier. Youngkin’s ability to navigate Virginia’s purple politics—balancing cultural conservatism with corporate-friendly policies—has helped maintain high sentiment among both suburban swing voters and his rural base.² His position is even more notable considering that Virginia is heading into another competitive gubernatorial cycle, meaning his approval may influence future races.

By Kate Magee Joyce for Glenn Youngkin from Virginia, United States - GlennYoungkin, CC BY-SA 2.0

These sentiment scores reflect a broader dynamic. Both governors benefit from being aligned with successful GOP messaging on topics such as school reform, job creation, and “Promises Made, Promises Kept.” Both have steered clear of the more contentious aspects of Trump-era politics, positioning them as potential contenders for higher office.

Image: Donald Trump departs Air Force One under campaign slogan Credit: Screenshot from Trump White House Archives

Democrats in Deep Trouble

In contrast, Democratic governors are faring poorly. New York’s Kathy Hochul holds a national sentiment score of just 34%, placing her in the “Critical” tier. While specific issues weren’t named in EyesOver’s topline report, her administration has faced persistent criticism for transit delays, budget gridlock, and low visibility statewide.³ Her inability to galvanize enthusiasm among New York Democrats has weakened her public image even as she avoids major scandals.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul Credit: KC Kratt, CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons

California’s Gavin Newsom polls even lower at 33%, sustaining the same score he received in the April 30 snapshot. That consistency suggests entrenched disapproval. A key issue affecting Newsom’s rating is public anger over government spending, particularly funds directed toward undocumented immigrants and Medicaid expansion efforts. This criticism has crystallized into a popular narrative that California’s progressive priorities have “bankrupted” the state’s healthcare system—a claim that, while exaggerated, continues to dominate sentiment among independents and moderates.⁴

California Governor Gavin Newsom Credit: Bureau of Reclamation, Public Domain via Flickr

Compounding Newsom’s problems, EyesOver’s trendlines show Democratic sentiment on immigration and border policy in Hispanic-heavy states averaging just 26.5% over the past month. Meanwhile, Republicans regularly exceed 45% on these same issues.⁵ Democrats are struggling to win the messaging battle on border security, even in areas that typically lean their way, and this problem extends beyond just policy.

National Implications

This four-governor snapshot reveals more than just individual winners and losers. It reflects a broader problem for Democrats: a sentiment gap on major voter concerns like immigration, fiscal responsibility, and public safety. While GOP governors appear to benefit from message alignment and focused delivery, Democratic governors are struggling to frame their achievements in ways that connect emotionally with the public.

For Republicans, the high scores posted by Kemp and Youngkin offer more than bragging rights. This approach confirms the effectiveness of a strategy built on clarity, repetition, and consistency, especially concerning economic and security matters. These governors may become central figures in national campaigns, helping shape the GOP’s approach to swing-state messaging in 2026 and beyond.

Democrats, on the other hand, face red flags. Hochul and Newsom are polling poorly not only in deep-blue states but also on topics that should be strengths. If sentiment on immigration and healthcare continues to trend downward, party leaders may need to pivot hard on policy framing and issue prioritization.

Wrap Up

The latest EyesOver polling data reveals a deepening divide in gubernatorial approval across party lines. Republican governors Kemp and Youngkin maintain strong public support rooted in tangible results and disciplined messaging. Broad public appeal can still be achieved through conservative governance, as suggested by their sentiment scores, provided it is not associated with chaos.

Meanwhile, Hochul and Newsom face persistent dissatisfaction, weighed down by policy controversies, budget perceptions, and weak voter resonance. As the country moves toward 2026, these sentiment trends suggest that while Republicans are consolidating narrative power at the state level, Democrats are at risk of being defined by silence, overreach, or misalignment. In a polarized climate, the perception and actions of governors are crucial.

Sources

1. EyesOver sentiment data, eo_weekly_snapshot_250514.pdf
2. EyesOver sentiment data, eo_weekly_snapshot_250514.pdf
3. EyesOver sentiment data, eo_weekly_snapshot_250514.pdf
4. EyesOver sentiment data, eo_weekly_snapshot_250514.pdf
5. EyesOver sentiment data, eo_weekly_snapshot_250514.pdf