As the 2026 primaries take shape, Donald Trump’s endorsements remain a defining yet unpredictable force in Republican politics.
What to Know
- Trump’s endorsements still carry immense weight in solid-red districts but are increasingly unpredictable in crowded primaries.
- In Florida, Rep. Byron Donalds has leveraged Trump’s early backing to dominate the GOP governor’s field.
- In Arizona, Trump’s dual endorsements have splintered the race instead of consolidating it.
- In Nebraska, former candidate Charles Herbster may test whether Trump’s brand still revives losing bids.
- The 2026 cycle will reveal whether Trump remains the party’s kingmaker—or its biggest liability.
As the 2026 midterm season gains momentum, Donald Trump’s influence within the Republican Party is being tested once again, not through rallies or policy debates but through his endorsements. For nearly a decade, Trump’s nod has served as both a weapon and a warning. It can crown a frontrunner or doom a campaign before it begins.
In the years since his presidency, Trump’s endorsement strategy has evolved from a show of loyalty to a measure of control. His backing can still clear a field in heavily Republican states, yet it increasingly creates tension and confusion in swing-state primaries where the party is struggling to redefine its identity.
From Florida to Arizona to Nebraska, candidates are discovering that Trump’s approval no longer guarantees victory. It can bring money, media, and attention, but also factionalism, fatigue, and fear of alienating independent voters. Whether Trump still holds the power to make or break Republican hopefuls will define not only the 2026 primaries but also the GOP’s readiness for 2028.
Florida: A Frontrunner Forged in Mar-a-Lago
In Florida, Trump’s influence is still potent. His early endorsement of Rep. Byron Donalds has transformed what might have been a multi-way primary into a coronation. Donald’s alignment with Trump’s economic messaging and combative media style has rallied the state’s conservative base and sidelined potential rivals.
Trump’s influence in Florida doesn’t stop at the governor’s race. He has also endorsed Attorney General James Uthmeier, Governor DeSantis’s former chief of staff, in the race for state attorney general. The endorsement effectively turned a low-profile contest into a loyalty test, pushing other potential candidates to reconsider their bids.
Attorney General James Uthmeier
Uthmeier, a staunch conservative and longtime DeSantis ally, has embraced Trump’s backing as proof of his alignment with the “America First” agenda. This action highlights the extensive nature of Trump's political influence, demonstrating his ability to reshape Florida's Republican candidates at every level, not just in high-profile elections.
Florida Republicans are describing Donald's campaign as "Trumpism with discipline." This approach mirrors the former president's populist agenda, but notably, it lacks the accompanying chaos. The early endorsement has also frozen the field; few serious challengers want to risk crossing both Donalds and Trump in a state that remains deeply loyal to the former president.
Arizona: When Too Many Endorsements Spoil the Race
While Florida demonstrates Trump's strong influence, Arizona reveals his unpredictable nature. In a rare move that has caused division within the state Republican party, Trump has endorsed both Andy Biggs and Karrin Taylor Robson in the gubernatorial primary.
Andy Biggs, Karrin Taylor Robson, David Schweikert
Biggs, a hardline conservative and longtime Trump ally, appeals to the party’s grassroots right. Robson, a more establishment-aligned figure, is pitching herself as the pragmatic conservative who can actually win statewide.
Rather than uniting the GOP, Trump’s twin endorsements have deepened internal fractures and confused voters. “You can’t clear the field by blessing everyone,” one Arizona strategist told Campaign Now. The result: a race defined less by policy differences than by competing claims to Trump’s loyalty.
Nebraska: The Return of the Fallen
In 2022, Charles Herbster, a Nebraska businessman, lost his race despite Trump's endorsement. This outcome indicates that Trump's support isn't always enough to overcome issues like local scandals or poor campaign organization. Yet Herbster is considering another run, signaling how deeply tied the state’s conservative base remains to Trump’s influence.
Trump has also reaffirmed his support for Sen. Pete Ricketts, signaling confidence in the state’s established Republican leadership. Ricketts, who once kept some distance from Trump, has since embraced the endorsement as a way to solidify conservative unity ahead of 2026. The move highlights how Trump’s backing isn’t limited to insurgent candidates—it also serves to reinforce incumbents who’ve proven loyal over time.
While some local party leaders welcome a rematch, others fear a replay of 2022’s chaos. “Trump can win you the base,” one Nebraska consultant said, “but he can’t fix a flawed candidate.” Should Herbster enter the race, it will serve as a crucial test of Trump's endorsement power. The question is whether it can resurrect a previously defeated candidate or if it will expose his declining influence in smaller states.
The Broader Pattern
Trump’s endorsement record is no longer a monolith. In ruby-red districts, his blessing still guarantees dominance. But in competitive or personality-driven races, it has become a liability as much as an asset. Since 2016, there's been a subtle but significant shift: candidates now aim to align with "Trumpism" ideologically, without necessarily needing a personal endorsement from Trump himself.
President Donald J Trump; photo credit Whitehouse gov.
The former president’s approach has also grown more transactional. Insiders describe his decisions as driven by loyalty, media exposure, or personal relationships, not always by political strategy. That inconsistency has frustrated donors who want predictable returns on their investments.
Measuring Trump’s Grip on the GOP
The upcoming primaries will reveal whether Donald Trump still commands the Republican Party or if his hold is weakening under the strain of internal divisions and voter fatigue. In states such as Florida, his endorsement remains a powerful tool that can elevate a candidate overnight. In others, it has become a wildcard that creates more uncertainty than unity.
What remains clear is that Trump’s presence continues to dominate Republican politics. His name drives headlines, shapes fundraising, and defines the tone of nearly every primary contest. Whether that influence leads to decisive victories or fractured coalitions will determine not only the GOP’s direction in 2026 but also its viability heading into 2028.
Wrap Up
Trump’s endorsement power now sits in a precarious position. For some candidates, his backing remains the fastest route to credibility and name recognition. For others, it carries risks that can alienate moderate voters or spark internal party fights.
The upcoming 2026 political season raises the question for Republicans of whether a Trump endorsement remains a guaranteed path to victory or if it now represents the party's alignment with a divisive figure. The answer will signal whether the GOP is moving forward with Trump at the helm or beginning to chart a new course for the post-Trump era.
